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CERT

Certara Inc. Common Stock (CERT) fair value

Healthcare · Health Information Services · NASDAQ · United States
$10.33+2.38%
Market cap $1.5BNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 22% above our fair value
Price
$10.33
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$8.47
Model range
$8.20 to $8.71
Fair value $8.47
Price $10.33
3 models fit Certara Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver61
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCertara Inc. Common Stock (CERT)
Fair value (3 models)
$8.47
ACCE price target
$8.70
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $6.46 since 8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $10.33 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
21.9% above
-18.0% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
31% buy
13 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 27.2x
1-year return
-17.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Certara Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Certara sells biosimulation software and consulting used by drug developers to model pharmacokinetics and clinical trial outcomes, with its Simcyp platform and regulatory submission tools as the core franchise. The moat rests on embedded workflows at pharma sponsors and regulators, where switching software that already sits inside submission packages is costly, and gross margin of 61.6% reflects that software mix. Revenue growth has stalled at 1.0%, so the case depends on a re-acceleration that the current numbers do not yet show, with operating margin near breakeven at -0.2% and ROE at -2.2%. The forward P/E of 27.2 is the figure to test against whether earnings recovery is credible, and the company carries no index membership, so there is no passive bid to lean on. This looks like a name worth a deeper look only if the next few quarters show growth moving off 1% and margins expanding from breakeven.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Revenue growth stalled
    Revenue grew just 1.0% year over year, far below the 11.5% five-year CAGR, and earnings fell 14.1%. Growth has decelerated sharply.
  • high
    Heavy short interest
    Short interest stands at 28.4% of the float, a high level that signals strong bearish conviction and can amplify volatility.
  • moderate
    Operating margin near zero
    Operating margin is -0.2% and net margin -16.2%, despite a 61.6% gross margin, so profitability is thin or negative at the operating line.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 15, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $70M, and the stock yields 5.0% on that cash generation.
  • Debt is almost negligible at 0.01 times equity, and the share count has not been diluted in the last fiscal year.
  • The stock trades at 23.9x forward earnings, slightly below the sector median of 24.2x.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew only 1.0% over the past year, far below its 11.5% average annual pace over five years.
  • Net margin is -16.2% and return on equity is -2.2%, so the business is not yet earning a profit on its capital.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where CERT's valuation models land
Price
$10.33
Model fair value
$8.47
Model range
$8.20 to $8.71
Fair value $8.47
Price $10.33
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish31% buy · 13 covering analysts
● Strong buy 4● Buy 0● Hold 9● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+10.2%
1 month
+19.6%
3 months
+37.5%
6 months
+63.4%
YTD
+17.3%
1 year
-17.4%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$9.37
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTFair value$8.47$6.46$9.37
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$8.70first publication$9.13
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.46$6.67$9.27
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.67$6.92$9.11
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.92$6.79$8.83
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.79$7.00$8.42
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.00$6.90$8.58
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.90$6.60$8.40
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.60$6.67$7.55

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value43Quality47Momentum67Total44
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
27.2x
PEG
no data
P/B
1.36x
EV / Revenue
3.4x
Book value/sh
$6.34
Enterprise value
$1.4B
Profitability
ROE
-2.2%
FCF yield
4.49%
ROIC
-0.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.01
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.43

Price

-18.4% · 1Y

Ask anything about CERT

Answered from Certara Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 79.1x
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low -16%-2%high 6%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 0.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
CERT Certara Inc. Common Stock$10.33$822% above--2.2%4744
SDGR Schrodinger Inc. Common Stock$22.60----16.2%3941
OMCL Omnicell Inc. Common Stock ($0.001 par value)$37.10$37At fair value44.9x3.1%5559
GDRX GoodRx Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock$3.62$533% below70.8x2.5%5451
OMDA Omada Health Inc. Common Stock$18.98--79.1x1.8%4347
TDOC Teladoc Health Inc. Common Stock$6.32----13.0%4338
HSTM HealthStream Inc. Common Stock$34.59$2168% above46.7x6.0%7171

Sector report card

Where CERT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 30, 2026
    In-Silico Drug Discovery Market Report Now Available: Capitalize on AI-led R&D disruption as revenue surges from $3.3B to $6B by 2030; benchmark Certara, Insilico Medicine, Isomorphic Labs, Exscientia and BenevolentAI to secure share.
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 22, 2026
    Capitalize on Drug Discovery Informatics: Benchmark Schrödinger, Certara, Dotmatics, Thermo Fisher and BIOVIA to Accelerate R&D ROI and Secure Market Advantage
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 22, 2026
    Capitalize on Biosimulation’s R&D Disruption: Benchmark Certara, Simulations Plus, Dassault Systèmes, Schrödinger and Applied BioMath to Accelerate Drug Pipelines and Secure ROI
11 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
38 filings
September 2026
Sep 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 7
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-04
View on SEC →
Aug 4
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-04
View on SEC →
35 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR