Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionCarlsmed Inc. Common Stock (CARL)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$12.40
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $14.53 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
5 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
+11.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Carlsmed Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Carlsmed makes patient-specific spinal implants and the planning software that goes with them, so each rod and cage is built to a surgeon's pre-operative model rather than picked from a fixed catalogue. The moat sits in that workflow: once a surgical team plans around the company's platform, switching means retraining and re-modelling, which helps explain a 76.6% gross margin. Revenue is growing 56.7%, and the near-term question is whether that growth can keep pulling operating margin out of its current -58.3% range as volume rises over fixed costs. The stock is a small-cap, unindexed name with a 52/100 score, negative ROE of -66.1%, and no earnings to put a multiple on, so the case rests entirely on operating leverage that has not yet shown up in the numbers. Worth a deeper look if you want exposure to custom orthopaedic implants and can underwrite a loss-making business through a margin inflection. The filing history and surgeon adoption data are where that work should start.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy cash burn
Free cash flow was $-29,619,000 against a $373M market cap, with operating margin at -58.3% and net margin at -57.4%. Losses are not yet converting to cash.
moderate
Price above ACCE target
The price of $14.53 sits 17.2% above the ACCE price target of $12.40, leaving little margin for error on the current valuation view.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Insiders disclosed $2.63M in sales across the last 10 filings and no purchases. Insiders own 45.0% of the company, so their selling carries weight.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 10.3% of the float, meaning a meaningful group of investors is betting on a decline.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 56.7% year over year, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 91.4%.
All five analysts covering the stock rate it Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits 42.0% above the current share price.
The company beat its latest earnings estimate, reporting EPS of -0.39 against an expected -0.40, a 2.5% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
The company lost money on its revenue, with a net margin of -57.4% and a return on equity of -66.1%.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$30M, a free cash flow yield of -7.9% at the current price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CARL's valuation models land
Price
$14.53
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $14.05
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Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
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