3 models fit Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze47
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionBlue Bird Corporation Common Stock (BLBD)
Fair value (3 models)
$27.24
ACCE price target
$60.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $28.52 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $57.73 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
111.9% above
-52.8% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
8 covering
P/E
6.8x
forward 13.0x
1-year return
+3.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Blue Bird builds school buses (Type A, Type C and Type D models, plus the Vision and electric variants) and sells them through a dealer network, with a sizeable parts and service business attached to that installed base. Its edge is the scale of its school bus franchise and its position as one of the few manufacturers with a fully electric product line already in volume, which matters as districts replace diesel fleets under federal and state funding programmes. Revenue growth of 29.9% is the headline number, and the near-term question is whether that pace holds as deliveries work through backlog and the electric mix rises. At a trailing P/E of 6.8 and a forward P/E of 12.5, the market is pricing in a sharp fall in earnings or a view that current profitability will not last, which is the gap the deeper work needs to test. The 12.1% operating margin against a 20.6% gross margin shows a lot of cost sits below the gross line, so the margin path is worth modelling before any view is formed. A 64.3% ROE on a business of this kind is high and partly reflects balance sheet leverage, so it deserves a look at the capital structure. The name is not in any index, which may keep coverage thin and the price less efficient.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest sits at 16.6% of shares, a meaningful bet against the stock that can amplify moves in either direction.
moderate
Valuation well above model
The stock trades 111.9% above the model fair value of $27.24, so the price already assumes much of the growth continues.
moderate
Earnings growth flattering base
Earnings are up 370.5% YoY off a depressed base, while 5-year revenue CAGR is 11.0%, so the headline jump is unlikely to repeat.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 29.9% over the last year, well ahead of its 11.0% average annual pace over five years.
Free cash flow of $153M over the last twelve months gives a 7.8% yield at today's price, and the balance sheet carries only a 0.35 debt to equity ratio.
Why it could disappoint
The 17.5% net margin and 64.3% return on equity may be peak-level, which makes current profits hard to rely on going forward.
The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 6.8x, but the consensus model fair value of $27.24 sits well below the share price.
Even on a forward P/E of 12.5x, the stock trades at roughly half the sector median of 23.8x, which may reflect market doubt about sustainability.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 23, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BLBD's valuation models land
Price
$57.73
Model fair value
$27.24
Model range
$23.38 to $33.12
Fair value $27.24
Price $57.73
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores