4 models fit Alamo Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Bronze48
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAlamo Group Inc. Common Stock (ALG)
Fair value (4 models)
$189
ACCE price target
$165
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $238 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $146 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.8% below
+29.6% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
4 covering
P/E
17.5x
forward 12.0x
1-year return
-22.1%
Dividend yield
0.92%
Alamo Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Alamo Group makes mowing and agricultural equipment, including rotary cutters, boom mowers, snowplows and street sweepers, sold through a dealer network in North America and Europe. Its edge is a broad, specialized product line sold through a long-established dealer channel, which gives it a reasonable base of replacement and aftermarket demand. The near-term case rests on revenue growth of 7.6% against a forward P/E of 13.8, versus a trailing P/E of 18.6, which implies the market expects earnings to rise sharply from here. The problem is that returns are thin: a 10.2% operating margin and 8.8% ROE leave little room for error if farm and municipal equipment demand softens. The stock scores 45/100 and sits outside major indices, so this is a name to examine further only if you want a cyclical industrial with improving earnings and a valuation that depends on that improvement arriving.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings flat despite revenue growth
Revenue rose 7.6% year over year, but earnings fell 0.8%, so margin expansion has not reached the bottom line. Operating margin of 10.2% and net margin of 6.1% leave little cushion.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
Across the last 10 disclosed insider transactions, sales totalled $0.38M against $0.12M of purchases. Insiders own only 1.2% of the company.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 7.6% year over year, ahead of its 6.6% average annual pace over the last five years.
Free cash flow of $147M over the last twelve months gives a free cash flow yield of 8.0% at today's price.
At a forward P/E of 13.8x, the shares trade well below the sector median of 23.8x, and the balance sheet is modest with debt to equity of 0.19.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital of 6.2% and return on equity of 8.8% are thin returns for the capital the business employs.
Net margin of 6.1% leaves little room to absorb a downturn in the agriculture or municipal equipment cycles.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ALG's valuation models land
Price
$146.18
Model fair value
$189
Model range
$135 to $245
Fair value $189
Price $146
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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