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AVOL.SW
ACCE-researched

Avolta AG (AVOL.SW) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · SIX · Switzerland
CHF 44.16-0.94%
Market cap CHF 6.2BNext earnings 2027-03-11Updated Oct 22, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 14% below our fair value
Price
CHF 44.16
Model fair valueConfidence: good
CHF 51.61
Model range
CHF 20.30 to CHF 73.59
Fair value CHF 51.61
Price CHF 44.16
3 models fit Avolta AG and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver60
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAvolta AG (AVOL.SW)
Fair value (3 models)
CHF 51.61
ACCE price target
CHF 40.40
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: CHF 44.16 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
14.4% below
+16.9% to fair value
ACCE score
53
out of 100
P/E
31.1x
forward 11.0x
1-year return
+6.0%
Dividend yield
2.58%

Avolta AG in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Avolta runs duty-free and travel retail concessions in airports, selling liquor, tobacco, fragrance, confectionery and luxury goods to passengers across Europe, Asia and the Americas. The structural case rests on airport concession contracts that are hard to replicate and on a passenger base that keeps growing with long-haul travel. Revenue fell 2.5% on the latest figures, so the near-term catalyst has to be traffic recovery and margin repair rather than top-line momentum. The 62.5% gross margin against a 6.7% operating margin says most of the cost base sits below gross profit, so modest traffic gains could move earnings disproportionately. A forward P/E of 11.1 against a trailing 31.4 implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery, and that gap is the thing to test before anything else.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Heavy leverage on thin equity
    Debt/Equity of 6.01 means the balance sheet is stretched, and with a net margin of only 1.5% there is little cushion if revenue keeps falling.
  • moderate
    Revenue shrinking year on year
    Revenue is down 2.5% YoY, so the strong earnings growth of 31.6% is coming from something other than top-line expansion, which is worth checking.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached CHF 2.4B, showing the business generates substantial cash.
  • Analysts' mean price target of CHF 51.76 sits 14.2% above the current share price.
  • The diluted share count fell 2.7% last fiscal year, so each remaining share holds a larger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue shrank 2.5% year over year, reversing the strong growth of the past five years.
  • Latest quarterly earnings per share came in 90.4% below expectations, at 0.19 against 1.97 forecast.
  • Return on invested capital of 1.2% is thin, and debt to equity of 6.01 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Mar 11, 2027
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AVOL.SW's valuation models land
Price
CHF 44.16
Model fair value
CHF 51.61
Model range
CHF 20.30 to CHF 73.59
Fair value CHF 51.61
Price CHF 44.16
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

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  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

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Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
-0.1%
1 month
+2.6%
3 months
-5.6%
6 months
-3.9%
YTD
-6.3%
1 year
+6.0%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CESTACCE price targetCHF 40.40first publicationCHF 45.34
22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTFair valueCHF 51.61first publicationCHF 45.34
22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publicationCHF 45.34

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in CHF. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth43Value68Quality52Momentum47Total53
Valuation
Trailing P/E
31.1x
Forward P/E
11.0x
PEG
0.99
P/B
3.79x
EV / Revenue
1.3x
Book value/sh
CHF 11.49
Enterprise value
CHF 17.6B
Profitability
ROE
18.6%
FCF yield
38.12%
ROIC
1.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
6.01
Dividend yield
2.58%
Beta
1.06

Price

+5.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about AVOL.SW

Answered from Avolta AG fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 11.1x31.1xhigh 31.1x
ROEbetter than 40% of peers
low 11%19%high 86%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%2.6%high 4.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AVOL.SW Avolta AGCHF 44.16CHF 5214% below31.1x18.6%5253
CTC-A.TO Canadian Tire AC$208.25C$16229% above16.1x11.2%4665
MUSA Murphy USA Inc. Common Stock$532.10$41429% above16.4x86.4%4572
8136.T Sanrio Company, Ltd.¥1326.50--28.5x-10080
JBH.AX JB Hi-Fi LimitedA$71.67A$685% above16.7x30.0%6351
FRAS.L Frasers Group Plc£8.74£1436% below11.1x15.5%6367
FIVE Five Below Inc. Common Stock$225.87$11793% above20.1x28.2%6972

Sector report card

Where AVOL.SW ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…