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AR
ACCE-researched

Antero Resources Corporation Common Stock (AR) fair value

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P · NYSE · United States
$40.16+2.87%
Market cap $12.3BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 21% below our fair value
Price
$40.16
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$50.75
Model range
$33.50 to $71.44
Fair value $50.75
Price $40.16
3 models fit Antero Resources Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver72
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAntero Resources Corporation Common Stock (AR)
Fair value (3 models)
$50.75
ACCE price target
$40.80
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $60.52 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $55.00 since 11 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $40.16 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
20.9% below
+26.4% to fair value
ACCE score
81
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
21 covering
P/E
11.5x
forward 8.6x
1-year return
+22.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Antero Resources Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Antero Resources is an independent natural gas and NGL producer whose core asset is the Marcellus and Utica shale acreage in Appalachia, with a large midstream arm (Antero Midstream) that gathers and compresses much of its own gas. The structural edge is scale and cost position in one of the lowest-cost gas basins in the US, where a long-dated firm transport network lets it move volumes to premium Gulf Coast and export markets. The near-term driver is the pull on US gas demand from LNG export capacity and power-sector load growth, which supports the production volumes and pricing the company has built its plan around. At an 11.1x trailing and 9.0x forward earnings multiple, the stock is priced below what its 12.6% revenue growth and 26.0% operating margin would normally earn, and the 14.2% return on equity says the growth is not coming at the expense of capital efficiency. The obvious risk is commodity exposure: a gas price slump would compress margins quickly, so the question for the deeper work is how much of the forward cash flow is hedged and how the balance sheet holds up in a weak tape.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Severe revenue deceleration
    Sequential revenue fell 19.8% QoQ despite 12.6% YoY growth. 5-year CAGR is -9.6%, indicating structural decline masked by recent commodity strength.
  • high
    ACCE score collapse
    Score dropped 9 points in 90 days (83 to 74). Momentum subscore at 47/100 signals deteriorating fundamentals or forward guidance weakness.
  • moderate
    Insider selling pressure
    Last 10 disclosures show $8.86M in insider sales with zero buys. Insiders are exiting despite stock trading 35% below fair value estimate.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Stock trades at 8.2x forward earnings, half the energy sector median of 16.0x despite solid fundamentals.
  • Company generated $391M in free cash flow last year while shrinking share count and maintaining 18.7% net margins.
Why it could disappoint
  • Five-year revenue has declined 9.6% annually, showing long-term business contraction despite recent 12.6% growth.
  • Return on invested capital of 5.5% lags the risk-free rate of 5.2%, destroying shareholder value at current deployment.
  • Current price implies only 1.2% annual cash flow growth over five years, leaving minimal margin for disappointment.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AR's valuation models land
Price
$40.16
Model fair value
$50.75
Model range
$33.50 to $71.44
Fair value $50.75
Price $40.16
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish67% buy · 21 covering analysts
● Strong buy 12● Buy 2● Hold 7● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.9%
1 month
+12.7%
3 months
+13.8%
6 months
+6.1%
YTD
+16.5%
1 year
+22.6%

SEC filings

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold Antero Resources Corporation Common Stock among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • XOP · SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production2.5% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$38.83
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$50.75$60.52$38.83
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$40.80$55.00$38.65
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$60.52$61.37$36.63
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$61.37$56.61$35.90
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$56.61$57.68$35.00
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.68$58.34$36.09
22 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.34$59.35$34.86
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$59.35$58.67$39.81
29 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.67$59.67$38.41

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth76Value96Quality83Momentum70Total81
Valuation
Trailing P/E
11.5x
Forward P/E
8.6x
PEG
0.14
P/B
1.32x
EV / Revenue
2.8x
Book value/sh
$26.96
Enterprise value
$15.6B
Profitability
ROE
14.2%
FCF yield
10.07%
ROIC
4.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.68
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
0.54

Member of

ACCE Fair Value Leaders

Price

+22.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about AR

Answered from Antero Resources Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 6.8x11.5xhigh 17.5x
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low 10%14%high 27%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AR Antero Resources Corporation Common Stock$40.16$5121% below11.5x14.2%8381
ARX.TO ARC Resources Ltd.C$33.91C$2442% above13.7x16.5%7580
RRC Range Resources Corporation Common Stock$45.52$3433% above11.9x19.5%8773
SM SM Energy Company Common Stock$40.11$3419% above6.8x16.1%8693
APA APA Corporation Common Stock$51.90$6116% below10.5x26.7%9389
CHRD Chord Energy Corporation Common Stock$158.13$21025% below10.7x10.3%7875
WCP.TO Whitecap Resources Inc.C$20.43C$1811% above17.5x12.6%8388

Sector report card

Where AR ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 14, 2026
    Antero Resources Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Aug 4, 2026
    Antero Announced as Official Jersey Patch Sponsor of WVU Athletics
  • PR Newswire•Aug 4, 2026
    Antero Announced as Official Jersey Patch Sponsor of WVU Athletics
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 13
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-10
View on SEC →
Oct 13
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-10
View on SEC →
Oct 13
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-10
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR