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APA
ACCE-researched

APA Corporation Common Stock (APA) fair value

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P · NASDAQ · United States
$51.90+4.98%
Market cap $17.3BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 16% below our fair value
Price
$51.90
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$61.45
Model range
$39.54 to $107
Fair value $61.45
Price $51.90
4 models fit APA Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver77
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAPA Corporation Common Stock (APA)
Fair value (4 models)
$61.45
ACCE price target
$44.40
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $59.96 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $52.00 since 11 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $51.90 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.5% below
+18.4% to fair value
ACCE score
89
out of 100
Analysts
36% buy
28 covering
P/E
10.5x
forward 9.4x
1-year return
+110.8%
Dividend yield
2.03%

APA Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

APA Corporation is an independent oil and gas explorer and producer with operations in the Permian Basin, the North Sea, and Egypt, selling crude, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Its business rests on long-lived, low-decline assets and a high-margin upstream model, with an operating margin of 56.3% and a return on equity of 26.7% on the figures we have. Revenue growth of 9.2% comes alongside a trailing P/E of 10.0 and a forward P/E of 9.4, so the market is paying a modest multiple for a business still growing. The name is interesting now because the forward multiple implies earnings expectations rising from current levels, which is the question to test in the filings: whether production and cost guidance support that step-up.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company generated 11.1% free cash flow yield last quarter, well above the 5.2% risk-free rate.
  • APA's 26.7% return on equity and 19.6% net margin show the business converts revenue to shareholder value efficiently.
Why it could disappoint
  • Consensus fair value implies only 3.6% annual cash flow growth over the next five years, below historical 15.0% average.
  • Share count rose 1.7% last year while recent year-over-year revenue growth slowed to 9.2% from the 15.0% five-year average.
  • Analyst mean price target of $46.20 sits just 0.7% above the current $45.88 share price, offering minimal upside.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where APA's valuation models land
Price
$51.90
Model fair value
$61.45
Model range
$39.54 to $107
Fair value $61.45
Price $51.90
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish36% buy · 28 covering analysts
● Strong buy 8● Buy 2● Hold 15● Sell 0● Strong sell 3
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+5.6%
1 month
+18.8%
3 months
+43.6%
6 months
+37.6%
YTD
+112.2%
1 year
+110.8%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$61.45$59.96$49.15
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$49.15
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$44.40$52.00$49.15
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$59.96$59.34$46.84
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$59.34$78.92$45.47
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$78.92$78.06$43.68
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$78.06$62.68$42.74
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$62.68$80.11$43.70
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$80.11$63.75$44.73
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$63.75$61.73$44.84

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth68Value96Quality93Momentum97Total89
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.5x
Forward P/E
9.4x
PEG
1.18
P/B
2.18x
EV / Revenue
2.1x
Book value/sh
$20.02
Enterprise value
$18.7B
Profitability
ROE
26.7%
FCF yield
10.23%
ROIC
10.8%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.79
Dividend yield
2.03%
Beta
0.42

Price

+117.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about APA

Answered from APA Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 8.0x10.5xhigh 71.5x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 2%27%high 27%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 1.7%2.0%high 3.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
APA APA Corporation Common Stock$51.90$6116% below10.5x26.7%9389
WCP.TO Whitecap Resources Inc.C$20.25C$2312% below17.5x12.6%8388
TOU.TO Tourmaline OilC$65.86C$4451% above71.5x2.3%6657
OVV Ovintiv Inc. (DE)$69.30$747% below20.1x8.4%7185
PR Permian Resources Corporation Class A Common Stock$24.40$253% below16.1x11.4%8187
STO.AX SantosA$9.19A$733% above27.4x4.7%5758
EXE Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock$92.96$7425% above8.0x14.9%8657

Sector report card

Where APA ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 8, 2026
    Apache Corporation Announces 2026-2027 Tree Grant Program Recipients
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 7, 2026
    APA Corporation provides third-quarter 2026 supplemental information and schedules results conference call for Nov. 5 at 10 a.m. Central time
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 16, 2026
    APA Corporation declares cash dividend on common shares and increases share repurchase authorization
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
30 filings of 40
May 2026
May 7
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-03-31
View on SEC →
May 6
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-05-06
View on SEC →
April 2026
Apr 14
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-04-14
View on SEC →
27 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR