5 models fit Antero Midstream Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze48
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAntero Midstream Corporation Common Stock (AM)
Fair value (5 models)
$12.88
ACCE price target
$21.40
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $13.62 since 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST.
Price used: $20.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
61.9% above
-38.2% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
13% buy
8 covering
P/E
25.1x
forward 12.9x
1-year return
+16.9%
Dividend yield
4.37%
Antero Midstream Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Antero Midstream owns gathering and compression assets and a water handling business serving Antero Resources' Appalachian Basin gas production, and it earns mostly fee-based revenue under long-term dedication agreements. A 79.6% gross margin and 52.0% operating margin reflect that contracted model, with revenue growing 8.3% and ROE at 19.8%. The equity trades at 24.0 times trailing earnings but 12.9 times forward earnings, a gap that points to expected earnings growth rather than a cheap headline multiple. The score of 57/100 and absence from major indices suggest the market has not yet re-rated the name, which may leave the forward earnings path worth testing. Before going further, the team should check how dependent volumes remain on a single anchor producer and what the forward estimates assume about Appalachian gas activity.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score down sharply
ACCE score fell from 68 to 59 over 90 days, with growth at 40 and momentum at 47. Earnings are down 8.0% year over year even as revenue grew 8.3%.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt to equity of 1.63 is high for the sector and is the main drag on the quality and balance sheet picture, though FCF of $770M gives some cushion.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-18 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $770M, giving the business real cash to fund its payouts and debt.
Net margin of 30.4% and return on equity of 19.8% show the business turns sales into profit very efficiently.
The forward P/E of 12.9x sits well below the sector median of 16.3x, so the shares look cheap against peers on earnings expected ahead.
Why it could disappoint
The shares trade 61.9% above the model fair value of $12.88, and all five valuation models in the consensus point to a lower price.
Debt to equity of 1.63 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared, which magnifies trouble if earnings or cash flow weaken.
The latest earnings per share came in 11.1% below expectations, at 0.24 against 0.27 expected, and only 1 of 8 analysts rates the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where AM's valuation models land
Price
$20.85
Model fair value
$12.88
Model range
$8.27 to $22.53
Fair value $12.88
Price $20.85
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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