2 models fit Almonty Industries Inc. Common Shares and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionAlmonty Industries Inc. Common Shares (ALM)
Fair value (2 models)
$4.27
ACCE price target
$11.90
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 20 Oct 2026, 02:20 CEST; previously $12.50 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $8.86 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
107.5% above
-51.8% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
91% buy
11 covering
P/E
49.2x
forward 5.8x
1-year return
+16.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Almonty Industries Inc. Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Almonty Industries mines and processes tungsten, the hard metal used in cutting tools, defence munitions and specialty alloys, with its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea as the core asset. The structural case rests on tungsten's supply concentration, since China dominates production and export licensing has tightened, giving a non-Chinese producer pricing leverage that few mining peers can claim. The near-term driver is the ramp of Sangdong toward nameplate output, which is what drives the reported 497.7% revenue growth and a 37.5% operating margin. On the numbers, the stock trades at 56.1 times trailing earnings but only 10.5 times forward earnings, a gap that says the market is either doubting how durable the current margins are or waiting for the ramp to prove itself. That spread, plus a 2.9 billion dollar market cap that sits outside any major index, makes it worth a deeper look, with the key questions being mine execution, commodity price durability, and how much of the forward earnings already reflects full production. The 56 score reflects that the earnings profile is still early and uneven.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF of $-79,985,000 against a $2.6B market cap. Operating margin of 37.5% is not converting to cash, so the earnings base needs scrutiny before sizing.
high
Valuation far above model fair value
Price trades 107.5% above the model fair value of $4.27. P/E of 49.4 and EV/EBITDA of 40.7 leave little margin for error if growth normalises.
moderate
Earnings growth flat despite revenue surge
Revenue grew 497.7% year over year while earnings growth was 0.0%. Top-line jump has not flowed through to earnings, which weakens the quality of the growth story.
moderate
Score down six points in 90 days
ACCE score fell from 62 to 56 over 90 days, with Value at 29 and Momentum at 39. Deterioration in two sub-scores warrants watching.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 497.7% year over year, far above the 10.5% annual average over five years.
Forward earnings multiple of 10.5x sits well below the sector median of 17.2x.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -CAD 80M, so the build-out depends on outside funding.
The diluted share count rose 22.8% last fiscal year, meaning existing holders own a smaller slice.
The net margin of 125.2% sits against 0% earnings growth, suggesting reported profit is inflated by one-off items.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ALM's valuation models land
Price
$8.86
Model fair value
$4.27
Model range
$3.12 to $4.84
Fair value $4.27
Price $8.86
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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