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AEVA
ACCE-researched

Aeva Technologies Inc. Common Stock (AEVA) fair value

Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ · United States
$10.17+2.94%
Market cap $689MNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 17, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 40% below our fair value
Price
$10.17
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $16.90
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionAeva Technologies Inc. Common Stock (AEVA)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$8.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $8.00 since 8 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $10.17 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
22
out of 100
Analysts
60% buy
5 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
-40.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Aeva Technologies Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Aeva designs frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) lidar sensors and the perception software that runs on them, aimed at automotive driver assistance and industrial automation. The company's edge is its 4D lidar, which measures velocity for every point in a scan rather than only range, a capability that rivals in the time-of-flight camp do not offer at the same resolution. Revenue grew 11.3% over the latest reported period, but gross margin of 27.2% sits against an operating margin of -563.2%, so the business has not yet reached a scale that covers its cost base. The return on equity of -516.1% reflects a shrinking equity base as losses accumulate, which is the central issue for anyone looking at the name now. The score of 22/100 and the absence of index membership point to a stock the screen flags as weak on fundamentals, so the case rests on whether automotive design wins convert into revenue before cash runs short, and that is the question to test in a deeper look.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Massive cash burn and negative FCF
    FCF of -$139.5M against $952M market cap signals runway concern. Company burns cash faster than revenue grows at 11.3% YoY.
  • severe
    Operating losses and margin collapse
    Operating margin -563.2%, net margin -150.1%. Company loses $1.50 on every dollar of revenue. No path to profitability visible.
  • high
    Score deterioration and valuation disconnect
    ACCE score fell 7 points in 90 days (35 to 28). Fair value $8.00 vs current $13.66. Model signals 41% downside.
  • high
    Insider selling without offsetting buys
    Last 10 disclosures show $14.96M in insider sales, zero buys. Insiders exiting despite 17.5% ownership stake.
  • high
    High leverage with negative equity returns
    Debt/Equity 3.72 with ROE -516.1%. Debt burden unsustainable given cash burn and operating losses.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Five-year revenue growth of 62.8% per year shows Aeva is capturing genuine market demand for its lidar technology.
  • Analyst consensus targets 29.00 dollars, implying 112.3% upside from current 13.66 dollar price.
  • 60% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and latest earnings beat expectations by 5.3%.
Why it could disappoint
  • Negative free cash flow of 139 million dollars over the last 12 months means the company is burning cash.
  • Net margin of negative 150.1% and ROE of negative 516.1% show the company is deeply unprofitable.
  • Debt to equity of 3.72 combined with negative 139 million dollar free cash flow creates refinancing risk.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AEVA's valuation models land
Price
$10.17
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $16.90
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality

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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish60% buy · 5 covering analysts
● Strong buy 3● Buy 0● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.4%
1 month
-33.2%
3 months
-31.5%
6 months
-37.1%
YTD
-23.4%
1 year
-40.1%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $AEVA: CFO Sells 11K Shares as Sylebra Files 29.3% Stake
    Aeva Technologies faces dual pressure: CFO insider selling and Sylebra Capital's 13D filing revealing a 29.3% stake plus $50M in convertible notes.
    2026-07-08
  • $AEVA Score Jumps 10 Points to 39 - What's Driving It
    Aeva Technologies' ACCE composite score rose from 29 to 39. Here's what the Growth and Momentum subscores say about the move.
    2026-06-30
  • $AEVA CEO Files to Sell 300K Shares as Stock Drops 7.22%
    Aeva Technologies CEO S. Salehian files to sell 300K shares after already offloading 41,083. A separate Form 144 discloses 450K RSUs in the pipeline.
    2026-06-17
  • $AEVA Score Drops 15 Points to 41 - What Drove the Move
    Aeva Technologies' ACCE composite score fell from 56 to 41. We break down what likely drove the 15-point drop across growth, value, quality, and momentum.
    2026-06-10

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$8.30$8.00$10.91
8 May 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$8.00first publication

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value11Quality21Momentum17Total22
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
0.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
38.54x
EV / Revenue
45.6x
Book value/sh
$0.40
Enterprise value
$985M
Profitability
ROE
-516.1%
FCF yield
-17.38%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
7.75
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
2.41

Price

-41.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about AEVA

Answered from Aeva Technologies Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 72.8x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -516%-516%high 62%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 4.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AEVA Aeva Technologies Inc. Common Stock$10.17----516.1%2122
YUBICO.ST Yubico ABkr 122.00kr 51139% above72.8x8.9%7166
3769.T GMO Payment Gateway, Inc.¥8909.00--27.1x21.7%9172
4704.T Trend Micro Incorporated¥7314.00--27.2x30.0%8665
4716.T Oracle Corporation Japan¥10260.00--19.1x-4655
OFSS.NS Oracle Financial Services Software Limited₹9843.00--24.7x49.9%9681
DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings Inc. Common Stock$92.00$40128% above42.4x62.3%7048

Sector report card

Where AEVA ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    Aeva Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Results and Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Jul 15, 2026
    Aeva Announces Date for Second Quarter 2026 Results and Conference Call
  • Business Wire•May 6, 2026
    Aeva Reports First Quarter 2026 Results
1 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 4
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-02
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 20
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-18
View on SEC →
Aug 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-12
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR