2 models fit Yubico AB and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze55
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionYubico AB (YUBICO.ST)
Fair value (2 models)
kr 51.06
ACCE price target
kr 140
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 126 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
146.8% above
-59.5% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
P/E
72.8x
forward 21.6x
1-year return
+6.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Yubico AB in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Yubico makes the YubiKey, a hardware security key that stores FIDO2 and WebAuthn credentials and is used to sign in to Microsoft, Google and enterprise identity systems without a password. The moat is in the combination of a secure element built into a USB or NFC device and the standards work behind it, which makes it hard for software-only authenticators to displace in high-assurance accounts. Growth is steady rather than spectacular at 9.0% revenue growth, and the 77.8% gross margin shows the economics of a device sold with recurring software-like pricing power. The stock trades at 70.5 times trailing earnings but 20.9 times forward, a gap that signals earnings are expected to step up sharply from a depressed base, which is the number to test before going further. Operating margin of 14.4% and ROE of 8.9% are modest, so the thesis rests on whether margin expansion arrives as the forward estimates imply.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Rich trailing valuation
Trailing P/E of 68.6 and EV/EBITDA of 47.2 sit far above the forward P/E of 21.7, so the stock depends on earnings growth continuing to hold up.
moderate
Thin net margin
Net margin of 7.1% against a 77.8% gross margin and 14.4% operating margin leaves a wide gap between operating and bottom-line profit, which makes the earnings jump of 600% look fragile.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 9.0% over the past year, and has averaged 12.4% a year over five years.
The company carries almost no debt, with debt to equity at just 0.02.
Trailing free cash flow reached SEK 231M, and the diluted share count fell 0.9% last fiscal year.
Why it could disappoint
At kr 126.00 the shares trade on a trailing P/E of 68.6x, a steep multiple for a business earning a 7.1% net margin.
Return on equity of 8.9% and return on invested capital of 6.2% are modest returns on the capital the business uses.
The analysts' mean price target of SEK 105.00 sits 9.6% below the current share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where YUBICO.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 126.00
Model fair value
kr 51.06
Model range
kr 33.20 to kr 68.92
Fair value kr 51.06
Price kr 126
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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