AEO

ACCE-researched
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail · NYSE · United States
$15.06+1.01%
Market cap $2.5BNext earnings 2026-09-09Updated Sep 20, 2026
FAIR VALUE · CONSENSUS
$15.06+0.0%
confidence-weighted across 5 of 6 models
Now $15.06
$15.06
$15.73$40.14
Strong BuyBronze42
Price vs fair value
45.3% below
+82.9% to fair value
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
9% buy
11 covering
P/E
7.7x
forward 11.3x
1-year return
-23.6%
Dividend yield
3.35%
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Overview

ACCE thesis

American Eagle Outfitters operates two distinct brands: American Eagle casual apparel targeting teens and young adults, and Aerie intimate apparel and activewear that has become a body-positive phenomenon driving the company's transformation. Aerie's revenue has grown from $500 million in 2018 to over $1.3 billion today, creating a sustainable competitive moat through authentic brand messaging that resonates with Gen Z consumers who reject traditional beauty standards. The intimates and activewear category continues expanding as consumers prioritize comfort, with Aerie capturing market share from Victoria's Secret and traditional athletic brands through digital-first marketing and inclusive sizing. Trading at 8.3x forward earnings while generating double-digit revenue growth, AEO offers exposure to a rare retail success story where brand authenticity translates directly to financial performance. Management expects Aerie to reach $2 billion in revenue by 2026, which would nearly double the division's current contribution to total company sales.

Written May 5, 2026
Investor warnings · 4 flags
  • high
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest at 12.7% signals meaningful bearish conviction; notable for a $2.9B apparel retailer facing consumer cyclical headwinds.
  • high
    Earnings declining YoY
    Earnings fell 6.5% YoY despite 9.7% revenue growth, indicating costs rising faster than sales - margin erosion concern.
  • moderate
    Razor-thin operating margin
    Operating margin of only 2.4% leaves minimal buffer; any revenue softness or cost spike could eliminate profitability quickly.
  • moderate
    Sharp sequential revenue drop
    QoQ revenue decline of 32.1% is severe, suggesting significant seasonality risk or demand deterioration beyond normal patterns.

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Price

-16.1% · 1Y

Valuation

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Quality

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Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish9% buy · 11 covering analysts
Strong buy 1 Buy 0 Hold 9 Sell 1 Strong sell 0
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The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

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Follow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Recent open-market insider transactions
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 5.5x7.7xhigh 15.6x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 14%20%high 46%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%3.4%high 8.4%

Algorithmic peers (6)

TickerCompanyMcapP/EROED/EYieldQuality
BKEBuckle Inc. (The) Common Stock$2.1B9.345.8%0.203.5%-Compare
BOOTBoot Barn Holdings Inc. Common Stock$3.7B15.619.2%0.070.0%-Compare
JD.LJD Sports Fashion$4.7B8.213.7%0.181.6%-Compare
PMV.AXPremier Investments Limited$1.3B12.516.0%0.138.4%-Compare
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Company Common Stock$5.8B12.040.6%0.170.0%-Compare
CRICarter's Inc. Common Stock$1.1B5.520.7%0.763.4%-Compare

Sector report card

Where AEO ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…

News and Record

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Recent performance

1 week
+0.3%
1 month
-9.7%
3 months
-15.4%
6 months
-12.5%
YTD
-42.9%
1 year
-23.6%

SEC filings

40 filings
September 2026
Sep 10
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-08-01
Sep 9
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-09
August 2026
Aug 5
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-03
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR

Recent ACCE blog coverage