AEO
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
American Eagle Outfitters operates two distinct brands: American Eagle casual apparel targeting teens and young adults, and Aerie intimate apparel and activewear that has become a body-positive phenomenon driving the company's transformation. Aerie's revenue has grown from $500 million in 2018 to over $1.3 billion today, creating a sustainable competitive moat through authentic brand messaging that resonates with Gen Z consumers who reject traditional beauty standards. The intimates and activewear category continues expanding as consumers prioritize comfort, with Aerie capturing market share from Victoria's Secret and traditional athletic brands through digital-first marketing and inclusive sizing. Trading at 8.3x forward earnings while generating double-digit revenue growth, AEO offers exposure to a rare retail success story where brand authenticity translates directly to financial performance. Management expects Aerie to reach $2 billion in revenue by 2026, which would nearly double the division's current contribution to total company sales.
- highElevated short interestShort interest at 12.7% signals meaningful bearish conviction; notable for a $2.9B apparel retailer facing consumer cyclical headwinds.
- highEarnings declining YoYEarnings fell 6.5% YoY despite 9.7% revenue growth, indicating costs rising faster than sales - margin erosion concern.
- moderateRazor-thin operating marginOperating margin of only 2.4% leaves minimal buffer; any revenue softness or cost spike could eliminate profitability quickly.
- moderateSharp sequential revenue dropQoQ revenue decline of 32.1% is severe, suggesting significant seasonality risk or demand deterioration beyond normal patterns.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKE | Buckle Inc. (The) Common Stock | $2.1B | 9.3 | 45.8% | 0.20 | 3.5% | - | Compare |
| BOOT | Boot Barn Holdings Inc. Common Stock | $3.7B | 15.6 | 19.2% | 0.07 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| JD.L | JD Sports Fashion | $4.7B | 8.2 | 13.7% | 0.18 | 1.6% | - | Compare |
| PMV.AX | Premier Investments Limited | $1.3B | 12.5 | 16.0% | 0.13 | 8.4% | - | Compare |
| ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch Company Common Stock | $5.8B | 12.0 | 40.6% | 0.17 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| CRI | Carter's Inc. Common Stock | $1.1B | 5.5 | 20.7% | 0.76 | 3.4% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where AEO ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- Business Wire•Sep 15, 2026AEO Inc. Declares a Regular Quarterly Dividend of $0.125 Per Share
- TMX Newsfile•Aug 27, 2026American Eagle Closes Option Agreement, Expanding Babine District Land Package to Approximately 9,283 Hectares
- Business Wire•Jul 14, 2026Republic Airways Holdings Inc. Announces Webcast of Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Ask anything, Pro feature
Ask questions about this stock in plain language. Answered from company fundamentals + recent valuations.
Recent performance
SEC filings
Recent ACCE blog coverage
- $AEO Reports 9.7% Revenue Growth, Trades at 60% Discount to Fair ValueAmerican Eagle Outfitters reported 9.7% YoY revenue growth. With a 6-model fair value of $27.16 vs a $16.89 price, $AEO trades at a significant discount.2026-09-10