$CHRW just saw its ACCE composite score drop 10 points, moving from 54 to 44 out of 100. That's a meaningful single-step decline and puts the stock in territory where the overall signal tilts cautious. The current breakdown reads: Growth 27, Value 45, Quality 59.
A 10-point composite move typically reflects pressure across at least one or two of those three subscore pillars, even if the headline numbers look stable on the surface.
What it means
Valuation is a real concern here. The 6-model fair value estimate sits at $135.19, which implies the stock is trading at a 24.1% premium to that blended estimate at the current price of $178.23. The Value subscore of 45 reflects that tension. A trailing P/E of 36.5 and a forward P/E of 28.8 are not cheap multiples for a freight brokerage operating in a cyclical industry, and that gap between price and modeled fair value is the kind of thing that drags a composite score lower when momentum or growth can't justify the premium.
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Growth is the weakest pillar. A Growth subscore of 27 is low. Year-over-year revenue is down 0.8%, and while earnings grew 9.9% year-over-year, that improvement is coming from margin management rather than top-line expansion. In a freight cycle that has been grinding through a prolonged soft patch, flat-to-declining revenue makes it hard to build a strong growth case. If the growth subscore deteriorated further in this latest update, that alone could account for a significant portion of the 10-point composite drop.
Quality is the bright spot, but it's not enough to hold the score up. A Quality subscore of 59 is the strongest of the three, and the underlying data supports it. ROE comes in at 34.8%, net margin at 3.7%, FCF yield at 4.3%, and earnings quality is flagged as strong. These are solid numbers for an asset-light logistics operator. But quality alone can't offset a weak growth profile and a stretched valuation.
The 1-year return of +92.2% is worth noting. A stock that has nearly doubled in a year often sees momentum-related score pressure simply because the price has run ahead of fundamentals. When fair value models point to $135.19 and the stock is at $178.23, the market is pricing in a recovery that hasn't fully shown up in the revenue line yet.
The analyst consensus target of $197.04 sits above the current price, so sell-side sentiment remains constructive. But the ACCE score reflects a more systematic, model-driven view, and right now that view is cautious. A score of 44 does not signal a crisis, but it does flag that the risk-reward balance has shifted. Watch the growth subscore in particular. A sustained revenue recovery would be the most direct path back toward a higher composite reading.
For the latest price and full score breakdown, visit acceinvestments.com/stocks/CHRW.
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