4 models fit Ypsomed Holding AG and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze56
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionYpsomed Holding AG (YPSN.SW)
Fair value (4 models)
CHF 219
ACCE price target
CHF 375
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: CHF 388 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
77.0% above
-43.5% to fair value
ACCE score
67
out of 100
P/E
23.8x
forward 26.5x
1-year return
+21.5%
Dividend yield
1.14%
Ypsomed Holding AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Ypsomed makes the autoinjector pens and infusion pumps that diabetes and biologic drug patients use to self-administer medication, and it sells them largely as the device partner to pharma companies. The moat is the installed base: once a drugmaker validates an Ypsomed device for a molecule, switching costs are high because re-approval and patient retraining are expensive. The business is still earning a 26.5% operating margin and a 31.1% ROE on 43.0% gross margin, but reported revenue fell 13.3%, so the investment question is whether that drop reflects timing and customer-specific volume swings or a loss of programmes. At 23.8x trailing and 26.4x forward earnings, the market is paying a full multiple for a top line that is currently shrinking, so the decision rests on how much of the decline is pandemic-era or pen-program normalisation and how much is structural. Worth a deeper look to pull the segment and customer-level revenue bridge before forming a view.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue declining year on year
Revenue fell 13.3% year on year, against a 5-year revenue CAGR of 12.6%. Earnings still rose 51.7%, so the drop may be a shift in mix or a one-off, but it needs checking.
moderate
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow was $-16.3M despite net margin of 30.4%. Profits are not converting into cash, which is worth understanding before sizing a position.
moderate
Concentrated insider ownership
Insiders hold 69.6% of shares, leaving only 15.4% with institutions. Thin free float can amplify price moves in either direction.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-03-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Return on equity of 31.1% shows the business turns shareholder capital into profit very efficiently.
Revenue has compounded at 12.6% a year on average over five years, a long record of real growth.
Analysts' mean price target of CHF 398.64 sits 4.7% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 13.3% in the latest year, a sharp reversal after years of growth.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at minus CHF 16M, so profits are not turning into cash.
At 25.4x forward earnings the shares already price in a strong recovery that the falling revenue does not yet support.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 11, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where YPSN.SW's valuation models land
Price
CHF 387.60
Model fair value
CHF 219
Model range
CHF 100 to CHF 331
Fair value CHF 219
Price CHF 388
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.