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XZO

Exzeo Group Inc. Common Stock (XZO) fair value

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified · NYSE · United States
$16.92-0.47%
Market cap $1.5BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 17% above our fair value
Price
$16.92
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$14.44
Model range
$11.78 to $17.62
Fair value $14.44
Price $16.92
2 models fit Exzeo Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze56
Valued as an insurer: Residual income and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionExzeo Group Inc. Common Stock (XZO)
Fair value (2 models)
$14.44
ACCE price target
$17.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $15.03 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $16.92 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
17.2% above
-14.7% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
3 covering
P/E
17.7x
forward 0.0x
Dividend yield
0.00%

Exzeo Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Exzeo Group writes homeowners and related property insurance through its wholly owned Sagicor-style carriers and sells its policies largely through a network of independent agents, with much of its risk ceded to reinsurers rather than held on its own balance sheet. The business model, which relies on fee-like income and modest capital needs, explains the 50.4% ROE and 51.7% operating margin on reported figures, though the 100% gross margin reflects how the company presents its revenue rather than a true absence of claims cost. Revenue growth of 6.9% is steady rather than explosive, and the 17.4 trailing P/E sits at a discount to the broader insurance peer group, which is the core of the valuation argument. The forward P/E of 0.0 in the data is not meaningful and should not be read as a signal; a forward estimate needs to be pulled before any comparison. With a score of 58/100, a $1.5B market cap, and no index membership, the name is small enough to be overlooked by most screens, so the question for the team is whether the margin profile holds through a catastrophe-loss year before we commit time to a deeper look.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings declining despite revenue growth
    Revenue grew 6.9% year on year but earnings fell 1.4%, so the margin story is weakening even as the top line grows. Net margin of 37.7% is very high, which makes a further squeeze more painful.
  • high
    Heavy short interest
    Short interest stands at 17.2% of ownership, a large bearish bet against the stock. Combined with 87.2% insider ownership, the float is thin, which can amplify price swings in either direction.
  • moderate
    Score drifting lower
    The ACCE score slipped from 62 to 59 over 90 days, with the growth sub-score at 28 the weakest component. The decline is small but points in one direction.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow of $97M over the last twelve months gives the business plenty of cash to fund itself.
  • Net margin of 37.7% and return on equity of 50.4% show the company turns revenue into profit very efficiently.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.4x, a discount to the sector median of 11.8x, and analysts average a target of $26.00.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew only 6.9% year over year, far below the 33.2% average annual growth of the past five years.
  • The stock trades 17.2% above the model fair value of $14.44, so the consensus valuation points to downside.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where XZO's valuation models land
Price
$16.92
Model fair value
$14.44
Model range
$11.78 to $17.62
Fair value $14.44
Price $16.92
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 3 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 1● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.4%
1 month
+10.5%
3 months
+10.5%
6 months
+0.5%
YTD
-30.2%
1 year
no data

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$16.57
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTFair value$14.44$15.03$16.57
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.03$14.60$16.69
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$17.00first publication$15.98
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.60$14.06$15.98
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.06$13.44$15.39
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$13.44$13.59$14.40
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$13.59$13.21$15.21
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$13.21$13.88$15.31
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$13.88$14.05$16.56

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth28Value80Quality100Momentum65Total68
Valuation
Trailing P/E
17.7x
Forward P/E
0.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
5.17x
EV / Revenue
6.1x
Book value/sh
$3.19
Enterprise value
$1.4B
Profitability
ROE
50.4%
FCF yield
6.36%
ROIC
26.0%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.03
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
no data

Price

-19.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about XZO

Answered from Exzeo Group Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 33% of peers
low 9.2x17.7xhigh 31.3x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 5%50%high 50%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
XZO Exzeo Group Inc. Common Stock$16.92$1417% above17.7x50.4%10068
NBG6.DE NÜRNBERGER Beteiligungs-AG€122.50--31.3x5.3%3952
IGIC International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share$24.74$264% below9.9x16.3%8259
VAHN.SW Vaudoise Assurances Holding SACHF 735.00CHF 62318% above13.8x6.0%5552
PFGRUPSURA.CL Grupo Sura preferredCOP 59440.00--9.2x11.0%6788
GRUPOSURA.CL Grupo Sura ordinaryCOP 70420.00--10.9x11.0%6788
ICICIGI.NS ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited₹1592.00--31.3x13.6%6857

Sector report card

Where XZO ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Aug 14, 2026
    Exzeo Authorizes $25 Million Stock Repurchase Program
  • Business Wire•Aug 6, 2026
    Exzeo Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
  • Business Wire•Aug 6, 2026
    Exzeo Group Launches Exzeo Ventures to Build the Next Generation of AI-Native Businesses
6 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
35 filings
August 2026
Aug 14
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-14
View on SEC →
Aug 7
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
Aug 6
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-06
View on SEC →
32 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR