Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionExagen Inc. Common Stock (XGN)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$8.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $7.27 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
43
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
7 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
-39.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Exagen Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Exagen sells autoimmune diagnostic panels, most visibly its AVISE CTD test for connective tissue disease and the AVISE Lupus and Vasculitis panels, which run on its own in-house lab rather than on third-party instruments. Its moat is less the tests than the reimbursement and physician adoption behind them, and a 58.6% gross margin is the number to watch because it suggests the lab is priced for value. Revenue growth of 15.9% is the near-term story, with the question being whether that growth reaches operating breakeven: the operating margin is still -8.6%, and ROE of -113.8% reflects a balance sheet that has been funding losses. The stock trades at a $207M market cap with no meaningful earnings to price against and no index membership, so the case rests on whether volume growth converts to operating leverage before the cash runway matters. The composite score of 43/100 says the screen does not favor it yet, so this is a name worth a deeper look only if you already have a view on autoimmune testing volumes and the path to profitability.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Cash burn against debt
Free cash flow was -$14.3M while debt/equity is 1.47 and net margin is -26.6%. The business is consuming cash and carries meaningful leverage, which limits runway if growth stalls.
moderate
Operating losses persist
Operating margin of -8.6% and ROE of -113.8% show the company is still unprofitable at the operating level despite 15.9% revenue growth.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 15.9% year over year, well ahead of the company's 9.7% average annual pace over five years.
Latest quarterly earnings per share beat expectations by 31.6%, reporting -0.13 against -0.19 expected.
Why it could disappoint
The company still loses money, with a net margin of -26.6% and free cash flow of -$14M over the last twelve months.
Debt to equity of 1.47 leaves the balance sheet heavily reliant on borrowing while returns on equity sit at -113.8%.
The diluted share count rose 18.4% last fiscal year, diluting existing shareholders' stakes in the business.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where XGN's valuation models land
Price
$7.27
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $9.85
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