Winchester Bancorp Inc. Common Stock (WSBK) fair value
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NASDAQ · United States
$13.09+0.65%
Market cap $117MUpdated Oct 24, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 66% above our fair value
Price
$13.09
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$7.86
Model range
$3.51 to $12.21
Fair value $7.86
Price $13.09
2 models fit Winchester Bancorp Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze42
Valued as a bank: Residual income, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionWinchester Bancorp Inc. Common Stock (WSBK)
Fair value (2 models)
$7.86
ACCE price target
$12.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $13.09 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, Graham number, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
66.5% above
-39.9% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
P/E
26.7x
1-year return
+35.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Winchester Bancorp Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Winchester Bancorp is a small regional bank holding company whose core business is taking deposits and writing residential mortgages, commercial real estate and commercial loans across its local Massachusetts-area franchise. At a $116 million market cap it sits well below the threshold for any major index, which is part of why it may be under-followed. Revenue growth of 32.2% is the headline, but with a 3.8% ROE and a 26.4 trailing P/E the earnings base is still thin, so the question is whether the top-line expansion is converting into profit as the balance sheet scales. The 25.0% operating margin suggests that conversion is happening at the margin, though a forward P/E of zero means the data set has no usable consensus earnings estimate, so the forward case has to be built from the filings rather than read off the screen. Worth a deeper look to test whether loan growth is coming with acceptable credit quality and whether ROE can climb meaningfully from its current low level.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation well above model
The stock trades 66.5% above the model fair value of $7.86 and 4.7% above the ACCE price target of $12.50, leaving little margin of safety.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership
Insiders hold 59.3% of shares, so a small free float can make the stock move sharply on thin volume and limits how much outside holders influence the company.
moderate
Leverage and thin free cash
Debt/Equity is 1.31 and free cash flow is only $5M against a $116M market cap, so cash generation does not comfortably cover the balance sheet.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 32.2% over the last year, and the company has averaged 26.1% annual growth over five years.
Management has reduced the diluted share count by 3.0% in the last fiscal year, lifting each shareholder's slice of earnings.
Free cash flow of $5M over the last twelve months gives the stock a 4.5% free cash flow yield at current prices.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 3.8% and return on invested capital of 1.3% show the business earns very little on the money invested in it.
The stock trades 66.5% above the model fair value of $7.86, and the consensus of 2 of 3 valuation models sits well below the price.
Debt of 1.31 times equity leaves the balance sheet stretched, and the trailing P/E of 26.4x already prices in a lot of optimism.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WSBK's valuation models land
Price
$13.09
Model fair value
$7.86
Model range
$3.51 to $12.21
Fair value $7.86
Price $13.09
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
Residual income
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