Waterstone Financial Inc. Common Stock (MD) (WSBF) fair value
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NASDAQ · United States
$19.95-0.60%
Market cap $361MNext earnings 2026-10-26Updated Oct 21, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 10% above our fair value
Price
$19.95
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$18.11
Model range
$11.29 to $25.45
Fair value $18.11
Price $19.95
4 models fit Waterstone Financial Inc. Common Stock (MD) and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver79
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionWaterstone Financial Inc. Common Stock (MD) (WSBF)
Fair value (4 models)
$18.11
ACCE price target
$20.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $17.82 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $19.95 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
10.1% above
-9.2% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
1 covering
P/E
11.4x
forward 20.7x
1-year return
+34.7%
Dividend yield
3.26%
Waterstone Financial Inc. Common Stock (MD) in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Waterstone Financial is the holding company for Waterstone Bank, a Wisconsin savings bank that takes deposits and writes residential mortgages, including a large share sold into the secondary market, alongside commercial real estate and consumer lending. Its structural edge is a conservative balance sheet and a deep retail deposit franchise in its home markets, which gives it a funding base that holds up better than wholesale-funded peers when rates move. The near-term driver is revenue growth of 5.2%, which is modest but positive for a regional lender, and a return on equity of 8.7% that leaves room to improve as mortgage volumes normalise. The stock trades at 11.6 times trailing earnings but 20.7 times forward earnings, a gap that signals analysts expect near-term earnings to be depressed before they recover, so the question for the desk is whether that recovery is credible. At a market capitalisation of about $357 million and no index membership, the name is thin on liquidity and under-covered, which is worth a closer look.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue shrinking over five years
Five-year revenue CAGR is -8.7%, even though current revenue growth is +5.2% year over year. The recent uptick has not reversed the longer decline.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 12 points, from 78 to 66, over 90 days. Growth (48) is the weakest component and is now the drag on the overall rating.
moderate
Insider selling with no buying
Insiders sold $1.82M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought $0.00M. Insiders hold 18.7% of the stock, so this is worth watching.
moderate
Leverage above one times equity
Debt to equity is 1.18. For a regional bank this is a normal structure, but it leaves less room for a credit cycle than a low-debt balance sheet would.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $18M, and the stock offers a 5.0% free cash flow yield.
Diluted share count fell 3.9% last fiscal year, so each remaining share holds a bigger slice of the company.
The shares yield 3.2% in dividends while trading at a trailing P/E of 11.5x, below the sector's forward median of 11.8x.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 10.1% above the model fair value of $18.11, and all four valuation models in the consensus are on file.
Analysts' mean price target of $12.50 sits 37.2% below the current share price of $19.95.
Return on equity of 8.7% and return on invested capital of 2.8% are thin, with debt at 1.18 times equity.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WSBF's valuation models land
Price
$19.95
Model fair value
$18.11
Model range
$11.29 to $25.45
Fair value $18.11
Price $19.95
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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