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WLFC

Willis Lease Finance Corporation Common Stock (WLFC) fair value

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services · NASDAQ · United States
$38.99-3.25%
Market cap $852MNext earnings 2026-11-03Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 22% below our fair value
Price
$38.99
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$49.99
Model range
$37.56 to $74.86
Fair value $49.99
Price $38.99
2 models fit Willis Lease Finance Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionWillis Lease Finance Corporation Common Stock (WLFC)
Fair value (2 models)
$49.99
ACCE price target
$44.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $23.34 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $38.99 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.0% below
+28.2% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
2 covering
P/E
9.8x
forward 6.9x
1-year return
-9.5%
Dividend yield
1.23%

Willis Lease Finance Corporation Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Willis Lease Finance leases commercial aircraft engines to airlines and maintenance providers, and it also runs an engine overhaul and repair business that services the engines it owns and those it manages for others. The moat is the asset base itself: a large, specialized engine portfolio is expensive and slow to build, and the 85.2% gross margin and 37.7% operating margin show how much of the economics sit in leasing rather than in lower-margin repair work. Revenue growth is essentially flat at 0.4%, so the thesis rests on margin durability and valuation rather than top-line expansion, with the main near-term driver being utilization and lease rates across the engine fleet as airline capacity recovers. At a 9.9 trailing and 6.9 forward P/E against a 12.6% ROE, the stock screens cheap on earnings, but the 47/100 score and zero index membership say the market has not warmed to a low-growth, asset-heavy lessor. The question for a deeper look is whether the earnings multiple reflects cyclical exposure to airline demand and engine values that the headline margins hide.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse, flat revenue
    Earnings fell 53.4% year over year while revenue grew only 0.4%, so margins are compressing. ACCE score dropped 27 points in 90 days, from 74 to 47.
  • high
    Heavy leverage, negative free cash flow
    Debt to equity is 3.74 and free cash flow is -$241.3M. Leverage this high leaves little room for a further earnings slide.
  • moderate
    Insider selling, no buying
    Insiders disclosed $8.95M in sales and no purchases across the last 10 filings. Short interest sits at 19.7% of ownership.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Trailing earnings were 9.5x, and the latest quarter beat expectations by 45.6% on earnings per share.
  • Revenue grew at an average of 18.5% a year over five years, and the forward P/E of 6.9x sits far below the sector median of 23.4x.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$241M, and debt is 3.74 times equity.
  • Return on invested capital is only 2.7%, well below the 12.6% return on equity, so the balance sheet is doing much of the work.
  • Revenue grew just 0.4% year over year, and the diluted share count rose 3.2% last fiscal year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where WLFC's valuation models land
Price
$38.99
Model fair value
$49.99
Model range
$37.56 to $74.86
Fair value $49.99
Price $38.99
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 2 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 0● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.7%
1 month
-28.3%
3 months
-43.5%
6 months
-38.7%
YTD
-13.8%
1 year
-9.5%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CESTFair value$50.03$23.34$37.61
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$37.61
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$23.34$23.99$37.89
13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$44.00first publication$40.88
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$23.99$23.34$42.84
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$23.34$25.40$45.67
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.40$24.70$52.30
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.70$26.11$54.33
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.11$24.96$54.38
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.96$24.21$55.14

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value75Quality69Momentum25Total47
Valuation
Trailing P/E
9.8x
Forward P/E
6.9x
PEG
no data
P/B
1.70x
EV / Revenue
5.8x
Book value/sh
$31.07
Enterprise value
$3.5B
Profitability
ROE
12.6%
FCF yield
-28.32%
ROIC
2.7%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
3.74
Dividend yield
1.23%
Beta
0.73

Price

-11.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about WLFC

Answered from Willis Lease Finance Corporation Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 9.8x9.8xhigh 98.6x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low -567%13%high 17%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%1.2%high 5.9%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
WLFC Willis Lease Finance Corporation Common Stock$38.99$5022% below9.8x12.6%6947
HTZ Hertz Global Holdings Inc Common Stock$2.04----567.0%2236
PRG PROG Holdings Inc. Common Stock$30.27$314% below10.2x17.1%6065
ZIG.L Zigup Plc£4.64£431% above14.1x7.1%4757
VSTS Vestis Corporation Common Stock$14.75----0.6%3042
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc. Common Stock$9.06--98.6x2.7%3346
MGRC McGrath RentCorp Common Stock$117.16$13211% below18.9x12.7%7552

Sector report card

Where WLFC ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 22, 2026
    Announcement of Series B Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 27, 2026
    Willis Lease Finance Corporation to Expand Global Maintenance Services with New Willis Engine Repair Center in Malaysia
  • GlobeNewswire•Aug 25, 2026
    Willis Lease Finance Corporation Closes Transaction to Acquire Commercial Aircraft and Aircraft Engine Portfolio
7 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 30
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-24
View on SEC →
Sep 22
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-16
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR