Waste Connections Inc. Common Shares (WCN) fair value
Industrials · Waste Management · NYSE · United States
$186.60+0.93%
Market cap $46.5BNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 116% above our fair value
Price
$186.60
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$86.49
Model range
$55.69 to $122
Fair value $86.49
Price $187
4 models fit Waste Connections Inc. Common Shares and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze51
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionWaste Connections Inc. Common Shares (WCN)
Fair value (4 models)
$86.49
ACCE price target
$161
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $92.52 since 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $167 since 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $187 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
115.8% above
-53.7% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
89% buy
28 covering
P/E
41.5x
forward 18.1x
1-year return
+5.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Waste Connections Inc. Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Waste Connections collects and disposes of municipal solid waste across mostly exclusive, long-term franchise contracts in the US and Canada, with landfills, transfer stations and recycling operations as the core assets it owns to close the loop. Its moat rests on those assets: landfill permits are almost impossible to replicate, and owning disposal capacity lets it capture margin that smaller haulers have to pay away. Revenue growth of 6.4% is steady rather than spectacular, and the forward P/E of 24.8 against a trailing 37.1 suggests earnings are expected to recover into that multiple. Operating margin of 19.7% and gross margin of 42.5% show the pricing power the model is supposed to deliver, while ROE of 13.0% is respectable but not exceptional for a business this capital-heavy. The score of 50/100 and the absence of any index membership say the market has not warmed to the name, so the case for a deeper look rests on whether the earnings step-up in the forward estimates is credible.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Rich valuation multiples
Trailing P/E of 41.5 and EV/EBITDA of 16.2 sit high against EPS growth of 4.4% YoY. The stock trades 115.8% above the model fair value of $86.49, and 15.9% above the ACCE price target of $161.00.
moderate
Leverage and insider selling
Debt/Equity of 1.14 with $1.2B FCF, and insiders disclosed $2.94M of sales with no buys across the last 10 disclosed transactions.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-23 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue has grown at an average of +11.8% per year over five years, showing a long track record of expansion.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached $1.2B, giving the business real cash to fund growth and deals.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 89% (25 of 28), and the analysts' mean price target sits +8.5% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 115.8% above the model fair value of $86.49, so the price already assumes far more than the four models support.
Return on invested capital is only 5.0%, a thin return for a business carrying debt to equity of 1.14.
Free cash flow yield is just 2.6%, and the reverse DCF shows the price needs yearly cash flow growth of +8.4% forever.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WCN's valuation models land
Price
$186.60
Model fair value
$86.49
Model range
$55.69 to $122
Fair value $86.49
Price $187
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores