3 models fit VirTra Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionVirTra Inc. Common Stock (VTSI)
Fair value (3 models)
$2.74
ACCE price target
$1.84
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $2.85 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $2.72 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
0.8% below
+0.8% to fair value
ACCE score
33
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
2 covering
1-year return
-54.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
VirTra Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
VirTra makes firearms training simulators, a line of real-feel shooting simulators and the associated scenario software that police and military customers use to run use-of-force training. Its moat is a stickier-than-it-looks installed base: agencies buy the hardware once but then pay for recurring scenario libraries and upgrades, and the company's gross margin of 61.4% reflects that software-like mix. The near-term problem is the top line, with revenue down 17.4% and operating margin still slightly negative at -3.3%, so any thesis here rests on whether order cycles from public safety budgets turn and whether that gross margin converts to operating profit. At a $31M market cap, the stock trades on a forward P/E of 17.2 against a negative ROE of -6.1%, which makes it cheap only if the revenue decline is cyclical rather than structural. Our score of 33/100 says the bar is high, so the deeper look should focus on backlog trends and the sustainability of the margin structure before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue and earnings contracting
Revenue is down 17.4% year on year and earnings down 85.7%, with a 45.6% quarter on quarter drop. The 5y revenue CAGR of 3.3% no longer reflects the current trend.
moderate
Score down over 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 40 to 33 over 90 days, with momentum at 17 and quality at 47, pointing to deteriorating fundamentals.
moderate
Thin profitability and negative returns
Operating margin is -3.3%, net margin -15.8% and ROE -6.1%. The gross margin of 61.4% is not yet converting into profit at the bottom line.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits far above the current share price.
The latest quarterly earnings per share beat expectations, coming in at a loss of 0.02 against an expected loss of 0.09.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $3M, and the free cash flow yield at the current price is 10.2%.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 17.4% year over year, well below the company's 5-year average of growth at 3.3% per year.
The company is loss-making, with a net margin of -15.8% and a return on equity of -6.1%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VTSI's valuation models land
Price
$2.72
Model fair value
$2.74
Model range
$1.43 to $4.68
Fair value $2.74
Price $2.72
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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