Viaplay Group AB (publ) (VPLAY-A.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

Viaplay runs a Nordic subscription streaming service that bundles live and on-demand sport, mainly Swedish and Nordic football and motorsport, with film and series, sold across Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and the UK. Its edge is local sports rights that churn-prone subscribers struggle to replace, but that same reliance on rights costs has kept gross margin at 14.9% and the business thin at the operating line, with a 5.5% operating margin. Revenue growth of 27.8% is the number that matters most here, but it is partly acquisition and rights-driven, so the question is whether that top-line momentum converts into sustained operating leverage as rights costs are spread over a larger base. Return on equity of -52.9% says the balance sheet has absorbed past losses and leaves little room for error, so the first thing to check is the debt structure and refinancing profile. The name is worth a deeper look only if the reader is comfortable with a levered, rights-dependent turnaround and wants to see evidence that margins are moving in the right direction.