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Valued as a bank: P/E comparison and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUWM Holdings Corporation Class A Common Stock (UWMC)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$1.65
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 24 Oct 2026, 03:20 CEST; previously $1.35 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $1.45 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Graham number and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
35
out of 100
Analysts
30% buy
10 covering
1-year return
-74.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
UWM Holdings Corporation Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
UWM Holdings is the largest US wholesale mortgage lender, originating conforming and government-backed home loans through its Mr. Cooper-style broker network and its UWM Direct channel, and it earns most of its money on the gain-on-sale margin when those loans are sold. That business is cyclical and rate-sensitive, which is why revenue fell 70.6% on the latest reported figures and the company runs at a negative 111.0% operating margin and negative 7.7% return on equity. The bull case rests on a mortgage market that eventually reopens: the forward P/E of 3.1 implies the market is pricing either a sharp earnings recovery or a value trap, and the reader needs to decide which. With a 35/100 score, no index membership and a 1.8 billion dollar market cap, this is a deep-cyclical turnaround candidate, and it deserves a deeper look only if the portfolio can tolerate a rate-driven earnings path that may stay negative for longer than expected.
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Shrinking revenue and cash burn
Revenue fell 70.6% year on year and free cash flow was $-2,721,605,000. Operating margin is -111.0%, so the business is losing money on its core operations.
high
Heavy insider selling
Insiders sold $37.58M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought $0.00M. Insiders own only 6.0% of the company.
high
Extreme short interest
Short interest stands at 29.0% of the float, meaning a large share of holders are betting on further declines.
high
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt to equity is 72.37, and return on equity is -7.7%. The company carries heavy borrowing against a thin equity base.
moderate
Score collapsed in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 30 points from 65 to 35 over 90 days.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 3.1x, far below the sector median of 11.7x.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 70.6% year over year, and the five-year average annual change is negative at -8.2%.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$2.7B, and the diluted share count rose 89.8% last fiscal year.
The latest quarter missed expectations badly, with earnings per share of -0.23 against 0.07 expected, a -428.6% surprise.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UWMC's valuation models land
Price
$1.45
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $1.07
Model
Fair value
Upside
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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