2 models fit Utz Brands Inc Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUtz Brands Inc Class A Common Stock (UTZ)
Fair value (2 models)
$11.93
ACCE price target
$14.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $11.42 since 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $14.28 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
19.7% above
-16.5% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
10% buy
10 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 17.4x
1-year return
+15.5%
Dividend yield
2.60%
Utz Brands Inc Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Utz Brands makes salty snacks under brands including Utz, Zapp's, On the Border and Good Health, sold mainly through grocery and mass retail in the US. The case for a closer look rests on its scale in a fragmented category and a forward multiple of 17.4 against 1.4% revenue growth, which means the market is pricing in a margin recovery rather than top-line momentum. Operating margin is only 2.1% and gross margin 25.6%, so the thesis depends on whether cost actions and pricing can widen that spread. Trailing earnings are negative, with ROE at -3.1%, and the composite score of 44/100 reflects that weakness. At $2.1B market cap, the name is small enough that a margin inflection would matter, but the evidence for one is not yet in the numbers provided.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing while revenue grows
Earnings fell 47.8% YoY while revenue rose only 1.4%, and net margin is now -2.0%. Profitability is deteriorating faster than sales.
high
Leveraged balance sheet, thin cash
Debt/Equity is 1.64 and free cash flow is only $9M against a $1.3B market cap. Little room to absorb a further earnings shortfall or refinance.
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest stands at 9.5% of float, meaning a meaningful bearish bet is already in place against the shares.
moderate
Stretched valuation on weak earnings
EV/EBITDA of 23.0 and ROE of -3.1% sit awkwardly together. The stock trades 19.7% above the model fair value of $11.93, and 2.0% above the ACCE price target of $14.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 13.4% a year on average over five years, showing the business has expanded substantially over time.
At 17.4 times forward earnings, the stock trades below the sector median of 18.6 times, and it pays a 2.6% dividend yield.
Earnings per share matched expectations exactly in the latest quarter, with a 0.0% surprise, so results were at least in line.
Why it could disappoint
The company lost money on sales, with a net margin of -2.0%, and returns on equity and invested capital were negative or zero.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was only $9M, a 0.7% yield at today's price, leaving little cash to cover the dividend or debt.
The stock trades 19.7% above the model fair value of $11.93, and only 1 of 10 analysts rates it Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 6, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where UTZ's valuation models land
Price
$14.28
Model fair value
$11.93
Model range
$9.77 to $14.08
Fair value $11.93
Price $14.28
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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