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USPH

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Common Stock (USPH) fair value

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities · NYSE · United States
$88.53-0.23%
Market cap $1.3BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 21, 2026
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Our verdict
Trades 100% above our fair value
Price
$88.53
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$44.29
Model range
$26.70 to $71.02
Fair value $44.29
Price $88.53
4 models fit U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze50
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionU.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Common Stock (USPH)
Fair value (4 models)
$44.29
ACCE price target
$87.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $56.61 since 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $88.53 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
99.9% above
-50.0% to fair value
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
7 covering
P/E
467.0x
forward 27.2x
1-year return
-3.1%
Dividend yield
2.11%

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

U.S. Physical Therapy operates outpatient clinics that deliver physical therapy, occupational therapy and related rehabilitation services, with its own margin structure built around a clinic-level model and a growing set of workers' compensation and injury-care programs. Its moat is mostly local: density of clinics in its markets, referral relationships with physicians and employers, and the operating discipline to keep a large footprint profitable. Revenue growth of 8.5% and an 11.1% operating margin put it in a steady, not explosive, position, and a trailing P/E near 478 reflects depressed GAAP earnings rather than a stretched valuation, with the forward P/E of 27.2 giving a cleaner read on what the market expects. Return on equity of 6.5% is thin, so the case rests on whether margins recover and whether acquisitions and de novo clinic openings translate into earnings growth. The stock is not in any major index, which keeps coverage thin and may leave room for mispricing, but the 49/100 score signals the quantitative profile is weak enough that the case needs to be built from fundamentals before anything else.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapsing despite revenue growth
    Revenue grew 8.5% YoY but earnings fell 56.5%, and net margin sits at 4.0%. Profit is not keeping pace with the top line.
  • moderate
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest stands at 10.4% of shares outstanding, meaning a meaningful bearish bet is in place against the stock.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 8.5% over the last year and has averaged 13.1% a year over five years, showing sustained demand for its therapy services.
  • Six of seven analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits 15.6% above the current share price.
  • The company generated $61M of free cash flow over the last twelve months and pays a dividend yielding 2.1%.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on invested capital is only 1.4%, and the latest quarter missed earnings expectations by 11.8%.
  • Debt to equity stands at 0.89, and the trailing P/E of 466.2x leaves little room for disappointment.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where USPH's valuation models land
Price
$88.53
Model fair value
$44.29
Model range
$26.70 to $71.02
Fair value $44.29
Price $88.53
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish86% buy · 7 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 4● Hold 1● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.3%
1 month
+7.1%
3 months
+18.7%
6 months
+20.4%
YTD
+13.4%
1 year
-3.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$87.02
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.47$56.61$85.98
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$87.00first publication$84.67
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$56.61$57.67$83.72
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.67$59.23$82.47
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$59.23$57.85$81.75
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.85$58.64$78.72
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.64$59.74$77.71
26 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$59.74$88.22$77.57
19 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$88.22$84.76$78.78

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value41Quality47Momentum69Total49
Valuation
Trailing P/E
467.0x
Forward P/E
27.2x
PEG
no data
P/B
2.77x
EV / Revenue
2.0x
Book value/sh
$30.06
Enterprise value
$1.6B
Profitability
ROE
6.5%
FCF yield
4.61%
ROIC
1.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.89
Dividend yield
2.11%
Beta
1.11

Price

-5.0% · 1Y

Ask anything about USPH

Answered from U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 16.9x467.0xhigh 467.0x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 2%7%high 19%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%2.1%high 4.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. Common Stock$88.53$44100% above467.0x6.5%4749
AMBEA.ST Ambea AB (publ)kr 181.80kr 21716% below19.1x15.5%4768
SIA.TO Sienna Senior Living Inc.C$20.53C$1186% above38.7x6.7%4250
ATT.ST Attendo AB (publ)kr 114.80kr 13515% below16.9x18.7%5263
AMN AMN Healthcare Services Inc$48.01$7133% below17.9x15.6%5273
ASTH Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock$37.45--44.7x6.9%3572
SGRY Surgery Partners Inc. Common Stock$15.75$1052% above-2.3%3343

Sector report card

Where USPH ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Sep 21, 2026
    U.S. Physical Therapy Announces the Appointment of New Board Member Myra Davis
  • Business Wire•Aug 27, 2026
    U.S. Physical Therapy Presented at the 17th Annual Midwest Ideas Conference
  • Business Wire•Aug 14, 2026
    U.S. Physical Therapy Announces CFO
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 28
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-22
View on SEC →
Sep 21
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-15
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR