Upsales Technology AB (publ) (UPSALE.ST) fair value
Technology · Software - Application · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 28.50+1.42%
Market cap kr 480MNext earnings 2025-07-23Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 10% below our fair value
Price
kr 28.50
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 31.73
Model range
kr 24.28 to kr 40.68
Fair value kr 31.73
Price kr 28.50
3 models fit Upsales Technology AB (publ) and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver67
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionUpsales Technology AB (publ) (UPSALE.ST)
Fair value (3 models)
kr 31.73
ACCE price target
kr 29.50
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously kr 31.39 since 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 28.50 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
10.2% below
+11.3% to fair value
ACCE score
64
out of 100
P/E
17.7x
forward 19.4x
1-year return
-12.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Upsales Technology AB (publ) in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Upsales Technology sells cloud CRM and sales-automation software to small and mid-sized businesses, mainly across the Nordics and parts of Europe, with a core product built around lead management, pipeline tracking and email integration. Its edge is in the sticky, subscription-based nature of CRM for SMEs, where switching costs are real and the customer base renews year after year. Revenue is growing about 7.7%, and the 61.5% gross margin and 17.4% operating margin show that the subscription model carries reasonable profitability at a size where many peers still run at a loss. The stock trades at 17.5x trailing earnings and 19.1x forward, a modest multiple for a software business with a 59.4% return on equity, which is worth testing against whether growth can accelerate from here. The company is too small for index membership, so the name sits in the under-followed corner of the Stockholm market, which makes it a candidate for a deeper look at the margin trajectory and churn data.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Forward P/E well above trailing
Trailing P/E is 17.3 but forward P/E is 36.5, so the market is pricing earnings to fall or the forecast to be unreliable. Revenue grew only 7.7% YoY against a 15.1% five-year CAGR, a clear deceleration.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Return on equity of 59.4% shows the business earns very high returns on the capital shareholders have put in.
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 43.50 sits 58.2% above the current share price, suggesting sell-side expectations are far higher.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached SEK 33M, and debt to equity is modest at 0.30.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew just 7.7% in the latest year, well below the 15.1% average annual rate over five years.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 36.5x, well above the sector median of 26.0x.
Latest earnings per share missed expectations by 15.0%, with 0.34 reported against 0.40 expected.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UPSALE.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 28.50
Model fair value
kr 31.73
Model range
kr 24.28 to kr 40.68
Fair value kr 31.73
Price kr 28.50
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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