4 models fit United Microelectronics Corporation (NEW) Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver71
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUnited Microelectronics Corporation (NEW) Common Stock (UMC)
Fair value (4 models)
$12.73
ACCE price target
$25.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $15.13 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $18.89 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
48.4% above
-32.6% to fair value
ACCE score
82
out of 100
Analysts
25% buy
4 covering
P/E
17.8x
forward 21.5x
1-year return
+151.2%
Dividend yield
2.16%
United Microelectronics Corporation (NEW) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
UMC manufactures semiconductor wafers at 28nm and older nodes, serving foundry customers in mobile, IoT, and automotive applications. The company benefits from structural undersupply in mature-node capacity, where legacy processes remain essential for chips that cannot migrate to cutting-edge geometries. Revenue growth of 17% reflects both pricing power in a tight market and volume gains from customers diversifying away from TSMC. The forward PE of 26.1x reflects near-term optimism, but UMC trades at a meaningful discount to TSMC despite comparable operating margins of 21.7%, suggesting the market still prices in execution risk or cyclical normalization. With automotive and IoT demand expected to remain robust through 2025, and capex discipline keeping ROE elevated at 21.3%, the valuation gap offers room for multiple expansion if UMC sustains its margin profile through a potential industry downturn.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Forward earnings multiple elevated
Forward P/E of 26.1 vs current 21.7 suggests market expects earnings deceleration. EV/EBITDA negative is anomalous and warrants clarification on capital structure.
moderate
Five-year revenue CAGR negative
5y Rev CAGR of -5.2% conflicts with recent +17.0% YoY growth. Suggests cyclical recovery rather than structural growth; sustainability unclear.
moderate
Valuation score materially below profitability
V score 48 vs M score 97 indicates market pricing in near-term headwinds despite strong current margins and ROE of 21.3%.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue jumped 17.0% year over year, showing strong near-term demand despite a five-year decline of 5.2% annually.
Net margin of 33.3% and ROE of 21.3% demonstrate efficient capital deployment and pricing power in core markets.
Latest earnings beat expectations by 237.5%, and management repurchased shares, reducing dilution by 1.1% last year.
Why it could disappoint
Forward P/E of 26.1x is stretched versus trailing 21.7x, pricing in earnings growth the company has not yet delivered.
Free cash flow yield of only 2.0% is thin, and ROIC of 7.6% trails the cost of capital in most scenarios.
Analyst consensus targets $19.12, implying 16.7% downside from the current $22.96 share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where UMC's valuation models land
Price
$18.89
Model fair value
$12.73
Model range
$7.24 to $19.92
Fair value $12.73
Price $18.89
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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