Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionThe Swatch Group AG (UHR.SW)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
CHF 176
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: CHF 170 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
41
out of 100
P/E
997.9x
forward 23.1x
1-year return
-4.3%
Dividend yield
2.52%
The Swatch Group AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
The Swatch Group makes watches across a brand portfolio that runs from Swatch and Tissot to Longines, Omega and Breguet, and it also owns the ETA movement factory that supplies much of the Swiss industry. Its structural edge is that vertical integration: few competitors control their own movements and components at this scale, which supports a 81.4% gross margin on the data we have. Revenue growth is only 2.0%, so the case rests on margin recovery and pricing discipline in the premium and luxury segments rather than volume. The headline trailing P/E of 1050.6 reflects depressed reported earnings (operating margin 1.7%, ROE 0.2%), while the forward P/E of 24.3 implies the market expects a sharp earnings rebound. That gap between trailing and forward earnings is the central question for a deeper look: whether operating profit normalises toward the level that justifies a 24x multiple, and whether the luxury brands can carry pricing through a softer Swiss watch export cycle.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse despite flat sales
Revenue grew only 2.0% YoY, yet earnings fell 85.1%. Operating margin is 1.7% and net margin 0.1%, so almost nothing reaches shareholders. P/E of 1077.9 reflects near-zero earnings, not a bargain.
moderate
Thin return on equity
ROE of 0.2% means the equity base is barely earning anything. Free cash flow of $98M is positive, but profitability at this level leaves little margin for error if sales soften.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 2.0% over the past year and has averaged 2.3% a year over five years, so sales are still expanding.
The company carries no debt, with a debt to equity ratio of 0.00, leaving it little financial risk.
The stock pays a 2.4% dividend yield and trades at 21.0x forward earnings, a lower multiple than the trailing figure implies.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is just 0.1% and return on equity is 0.2%, so almost none of the revenue reaches shareholders as profit.
Return on invested capital is 0.0%, meaning the money tied up in the business is not earning any return.
Analysts' mean price target of CHF 166.97 sits 9.8% below the current price, and the latest earnings missed expectations entirely.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Feb 2, 2027
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UHR.SW's valuation models land
Price
CHF 169.65
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
CHF 134
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.