4 models fit United Bancorp Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUnited Bancorp Inc. Common Stock (UBCP)
Fair value (4 models)
$12.16
ACCE price target
$14.60
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $14.76 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $13.73 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
12.9% above
-11.4% to fair value
ACCE score
56
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
1 covering
P/E
10.0x
forward 10.3x
1-year return
+6.4%
Dividend yield
5.57%
United Bancorp Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
United Bancorp (UBCP) is a small regional bank holding company whose revenue comes mostly from net interest income on commercial and residential loans and deposits gathered through its branch network in Ohio. The franchise is a community lender with a long-established deposit base, which tends to be sticky and cheaper than wholesale funding, and that is the core of its edge against larger competitors. Revenue is growing at 9.2% with a 25.4% operating margin and a 12.1% ROE, a combination that is respectable for a bank of this size. At a trailing P/E of 9.7 and a forward P/E of 10.3, the market is pricing in roughly flat earnings, so the thesis rests on whether that 9.2% top-line growth converts into per-share earnings without a rise in credit losses or funding costs. With a $77M market cap and no index membership, the stock is thinly followed, which is the main reason to take a closer look.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Negative free cash flow
FCF was -$1.82M despite positive 24.2% net margin and 9.1% earnings growth. Bank cash flow is often distorted by loan book changes, so check the cash flow statement before reading much into it.
moderate
Elevated leverage ratio
Debt/Equity of 1.86 is high. For a regional bank this needs context from deposit funding and capital ratios, which the data does not include.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 9.2% year over year, ahead of its 6.6% average annual pace over the past five years.
The stock trades at 10.3x forward earnings, below the sector median of 11.7x, and the dividend yields 5.2%.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$2M, so the business did not generate spare cash for shareholders.
Return on invested capital is just 3.2%, and debt equals 1.86 times equity, which leaves little cushion if earnings slip.
The diluted share count rose 5.0% last fiscal year, diluting each shareholder's stake in the company's earnings.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Where UBCP's valuation models land
Price
$13.73
Model fair value
$12.16
Model range
$4.00 to $19.21
Fair value $12.16
Price $13.73
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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