3 models fit Timberland Bancorp Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a bank: Residual income, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTimberland Bancorp Inc. Common Stock (TSBK)
Fair value (3 models)
$38.34
ACCE price target
$45.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $41.00 since 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $46.75 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, Graham number, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.0% above
-18.0% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
P/E
11.7x
1-year return
+45.7%
Dividend yield
2.56%
Timberland Bancorp Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Timberland Bancorp is the holding company for Timberland Bank, a Washington state lender that takes deposits and writes commercial real estate, construction, and residential mortgage loans across Western Washington and Oregon. Its edge is a conservatively underwritten, relationship-driven loan book in a region with steady population and business formation, which has kept credit performance tight through rate cycles. The near-term story is margin and balance sheet: a 6.1% revenue growth rate and an 11.9% return on equity suggest the bank is earning more on its assets than it did a year or two ago. At 11.4 times trailing earnings and 13.4 times forward, the market is pricing the stock at a modest multiple for a regional bank with double-digit-adjacent returns, which is worth a closer look against the loan and deposit trends in the latest filings. The 47.3% operating margin and 353 million dollar market cap also put it in the small-cap bank bracket where a few quarters of execution can move the multiple, and the position is not index-held, so the stock sits outside the flows that drive the larger names.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score slipping over 90 days
ACCE score fell from 74 to 70 over 90 days, with Growth at 48 the weakest component. Revenue grew 6.1% YoY and earnings 9.0%, so the drift is not from a collapse in the numbers.
moderate
Trading above model fair value
Price of $46.75 sits 22.0% above the model fair value of $38.34, while the ACCE price target is $45.00, just 3.9% below the price. The stock already prices in more than the models support.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 6.1% year over year and averaged 9.6% a year over five years, so the top line has been expanding steadily.
A net margin of 36.7% and a return on equity of 11.9% show the business turns its sales into profit efficiently.
Debt to equity of 0.09 means the balance sheet carries very little borrowing, and the diluted share count fell 1.6% last year.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 22.0% above the model fair value of $38.34, and all four valuation models sit in that consensus.
The forward P/E of 13.4x sits above the sector median of 11.7x, so investors already pay a premium for these earnings.
Analysts' mean price target of $12.50 is 72.6% below the share price, a gap that signals serious doubt about the current price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where TSBK's valuation models land
Price
$46.75
Model fair value
$38.34
Model range
$27.94 to $52.79
Fair value $38.34
Price $46.75
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
Residual income
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Analysts
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