Truecaller AB (publ) (TRUE-B.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

Truecaller sells caller ID and spam-blocking software on iOS and Android, monetised mainly through premium subscriptions and a business directory that companies pay to be listed in. Its moat is a crowdsourced database of phone numbers built from hundreds of millions of users, which is hard to replicate and gets more useful with each install. Revenue is currently shrinking slightly, down 0.8%, so the thesis rests on margin and cash generation rather than top-line momentum, with a 31.8% operating margin and 71.3% gross margin showing the model is highly profitable at current scale. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 33.8 but a forward P/E of 12.6, a gap that implies earnings are expected to recover sharply, which is the key assumption to test. An 18.4% return on equity and a 7.7bn SEK market cap leave it small enough to be overlooked by index-linked money, which is worth a deeper look only if the forward earnings step-up holds up in the next reports.