3 models fit Trinity Capital Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Bronze40
Valued as an asset manager: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
ACCE opinionTrinity Capital Inc. Common Stock (TRIN)
Fair value (3 models)
$18.96
ACCE price target
$17.90
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $18.58 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $16.34 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
13.8% below
+16.0% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
9 covering
P/E
9.3x
forward 8.3x
1-year return
+9.1%
Dividend yield
12.61%
Trinity Capital Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Trinity Capital is a business development company that makes secured venture debt and structured loans to venture-backed and growth-stage companies, with a smaller equity co-investment book attached to those loans. Its edge is the niche itself: it lends to companies that banks won't underwrite and that equity investors price too early, which lets it earn yields well above what a conventional lender gets. The stock trades at 9.5 times trailing earnings and 8.3 times forward, while reported revenue has grown 19.3% and operating margin sits at 79.1%, so the market is paying a low multiple for a business still compounding its loan book. Against that, ROE of 12.9% reflects the leverage and credit risk inherent in a BDC, so the case rests on whether the portfolio's loss rates hold as venture funding cycles tighten. The stock is not in any major index, which likely keeps coverage thin and may be part of why the multiple sits where it does, making it worth a closer look at the credit quality of the loan book.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
FCF is -$535.5M against a $1.5B market cap, and debt/equity is 1.20. Growth is being funded by borrowing or capital raised, so the 45.1% net margin is not converting to cash.
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 19.3% YoY while earnings fell 22.0%. Profit is not keeping pace with the top line.
moderate
Score down six points in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 73 to 67 over 90 days, with the growth component at 52, the weakest of the four.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Shares trade at 8.3x forward earnings, below the sector median of 11.7x, which leaves room for a rerating.
Analysts rate 78% of the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the consensus fair value sits above the current price.
Revenue grew 19.3% year over year, and the dividend yield stands at 11.9%.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative $535M, so the business consumed cash rather than generating it.
Diluted share count rose 22.1% last fiscal year, diluting each shareholder's stake in the company.
Return on invested capital is only 4.6%, and the company's debt equals 1.20 times its equity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TRIN's valuation models land
Price
$16.34
Model fair value
$18.96
Model range
$15.69 to $24.72
Fair value $18.96
Price $16.34
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores