Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTejon Ranch Co Common Stock (TRC)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$13.70
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $16.45 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
40
out of 100
P/E
74.8x
forward 89.3x
1-year return
+2.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Tejon Ranch Co Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Tejon Ranch owns roughly 270,000 acres in Kern County, California, and earns its money from farming (almonds, pistachios and other permanent crops), commercial and industrial real estate leasing, and entitled land sales tied to its Centennial master-planned development. The structural argument is the land itself: a large, contiguous holding near the Grapevine corridor that can be monetized over decades, though the reported 71.7% revenue growth reflects lumpy land-sale timing rather than a steady operating run-rate. Earnings quality is the central problem, with a 2.4% operating margin, 1.2% ROE and a trailing P/E of 75.3 (89.3 forward), so the valuation is pricing in a large step-up in entitlement and development income that has not yet shown up in the numbers. The score of 40/100 and absence from any index mean the name screens poorly on our framework today and has little natural institutional support. It merits a deeper look only if Centennial's entitlement milestones and lease-up are the variable we want exposure to, and the work should start from cash flow timing rather than the headline growth figure.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$65.1M against a $442M market cap, so the business is consuming cash despite reported growth. Revenue rose 71.7% YoY while earnings fell 64.8%.
high
Extreme valuation multiples
P/E of 74.3, forward P/E of 89.3 and EV/EBITDA of 84.3 leave little room for error if growth or margins disappoint.
moderate
Thin returns on equity
ROE of +1.2% and operating margin of 2.4% mean the earnings base is small relative to the equity and revenue being reported.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 9.8% of float, which signals notable bearish positioning and can add volatility.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue jumped 71.7% year over year, well above the company's 5.6% average annual growth over five years.
The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.10 against 0.02 expected.
Analysts' mean price target of $26.25 sits 60.6% above the current $16.35 share price.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$65M, so the business is consuming cash.
Return on invested capital of 0.0% and return on equity of 1.2% show little profit earned on the money invested.
At a forward P/E of 89.3x, the shares trade far above the sector median of 23.7x.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TRC's valuation models land
Price
$16.45
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $2.45
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Analysts
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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