2 models fit TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)
Valued as a fund or holding company: Net asset value and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Common Stock (TPVG)
Fair value (2 models)
$9.46
ACCE price target
$4.50
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $9.59 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $4.29 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Net asset value.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
54.6% below
+120.5% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
4 covering
P/E
4.3x
forward 5.2x
1-year return
-25.3%
Dividend yield
30.23%
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TriplePoint Venture Growth is a business development company that lends to venture-backed technology and life-science companies, mostly through senior secured term loans with warrants attached to the borrowers. At a $183M market cap and a trailing P/E of 4.5 (6.8 forward), the stock trades at a steep discount to what its operating economics would imply, with a 76.3% operating margin and 11.5% ROE. The case rests on whether that discount is earned: revenue is shrinking 5.2%, and as a BDC the investment hinges on the quality of the loan book and the level of its dividend, neither of which this data set covers. Index membership is absent, which narrows the buyer base and may be part of the valuation gap. The score of 46/100 says the quantitative profile is mixed, so this is a name for a deeper look at credit quality and dividend coverage before anyone spends more time on the upside.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF of -$57.0M against a $180M market cap is a large cash outflow. Revenue fell 5.2% YoY and earnings fell 19.8%, so the gap is not closing.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt/Equity of 1.33 means borrowings exceed equity by a third again. Combined with shrinking revenue, that leaves less room for error if credit conditions tighten.
moderate
Score slipping over 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 48 to 44 over 90 days, with the momentum component at 17/100. The trend is drifting lower rather than stabilising.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of $5.83 sits 33.2% above the share price of $4.29, suggesting the market price looks low to some.
The stock trades on a forward P/E of 6.8x, against a sector median forward P/E of 11.7x.
The company returns a dividend yield of 20.4%, a large cash income stream for shareholders.
Why it could disappoint
Trailing free cash flow is negative at -$57M, meaning the business did not generate spare cash over the last year.
Revenue fell 5.2% year over year, a sharp reversal from its 5-year average growth of 18.3% per year.
Debt equals 1.33 times equity, and the diluted share count rose 3.0% last year, diluting existing holders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TPVG's valuation models land
Price
$4.29
Model fair value
$9.46
Model range
$8.51 to $10.25
Fair value $9.46
Price $4.29
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Net asset value
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores