Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · NASDAQ · United States
$2.81-4.10%
Market cap $415MNext earnings 2026-10-08Updated Oct 16, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 76% below our fair value
Price
$2.81
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $11.92
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionTilray Brands Inc. Common Stock (TLRY)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$2.43
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $3.80 since 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $2.81 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
33
out of 100
Analysts
30% buy
10 covering
1-year return
-81.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Tilray Brands Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Tilray Brands sells cannabis products in Canada and Europe, along with craft beer and hemp-based foods. The mix of cannabis and beverages spreads its revenue, and its medical cannabis exports to Europe are a growth area. The driver is cost cuts and German and Canadian volumes. Revenue grew 22.7%, but the operating margin is -6.2% and ROE is -9.4%.
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
FCF of -$17.3M despite 22.7% revenue growth signals the business is not self-funding. Burn rate unsustainable without capital raises.
high
Earnings miss and negative net margin
Q4 2026 EPS surprise of -68.4% with net margin at -17.1%. Company losing money on every dollar of sales despite topline growth.
high
Valuation disconnect
EV/EBITDA of 51.5x and forward P/E of 21.2x are stretched for a loss-making business. ACCE fair value $3.80 vs current $3.54 offers minimal margin of safety.
moderate
Sequential revenue decline
QoQ revenue fell 8.7% despite YoY growth of 22.7%, suggesting deceleration or seasonal weakness. Trend bears monitoring.
moderate
Short interest elevated
13.3% short interest is material. Combined with negative earnings surprise and cash burn, shorts have a thesis worth watching.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-08-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 22.7% year-over-year growth, well above the 13.4% five-year average, signaling strengthening demand.
Analyst consensus targets 6.44 dollars per share, implying 82.0% upside from the current 3.54 dollar price.
Balance sheet remains conservative with debt-to-equity of only 0.23, leaving room to fund growth without distress.
Why it could disappoint
Company burned 17 million dollars in free cash flow last twelve months and posted negative 3.3% free cash flow yield.
Net margin of negative 17.1% and ROE of negative 9.4% show the business destroys shareholder value at current scale.
Share count surged 25.6% last fiscal year while earnings missed expectations by 68.4%, diluting existing holders for poor results.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TLRY's valuation models land
Price
$2.81
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $11.92
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores