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Valued as a cyclical company: Discounted cash flow and Graham number.
ACCE opinionThryv Holdings Inc. Common Stock (THRY)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$0.92
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $1.19 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
25% buy
4 covering
1-year return
-90.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Thryv Holdings Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Thryv Holdings sells small and mid-sized businesses a bundle of marketing and software tools, including its Thryv Marketing and Business Management platforms, plus its legacy print and digital Yellow Pages directories, which still make up a large share of revenue. The gross margin of 66.1% reflects the software mix, but revenue fell 28.4% and the operating margin is only 1.1%, so the business is shrinking faster than it is cutting costs. The thesis rests on the forward multiple: at 11.1x forward earnings against a trailing P/E that is effectively zero, the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery that the trailing numbers do not yet show. With a $54M market cap and no index membership, the stock is small enough that a single change in the legacy print decline or in software retention could move the equity meaningfully. The score of 44/100 and negative ROE of -7.6% argue for a deeper look at whether the software segment is stabilizing fast enough to offset the directory decline before we spend time on it.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Revenue collapsing
Revenue fell 28.4% year over year and 12.5% quarter over quarter, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of -6.7%. A shrinking top line at this scale is a fundamental problem, not a blip.
high
Trades above ACCE target
At $1.21 the stock trades 29.3% above the ACCE price target of $0.92, so the price already assumes more than our model supports.
high
Leverage and negative ROE
Debt/Equity is 1.18 and ROE is -7.6%. Equity is being eroded by losses while debt stays heavy, which leaves little cushion if revenue keeps declining.
moderate
Score down five points
The ACCE score fell from 49 to 44 over 90 days, with Quality at 38 and Momentum at 17, both weak readings.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $31M, so the business still generates real cash despite falling sales.
Forward earnings of 11.1x and a free cash flow yield of 57.9% make the shares look cheap on paper.
Analysts' mean price target of $4.00 sits far above the current share price, suggesting some on the Street see upside.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 28.4% year over year, and the five-year average decline is 6.7% a year, so the core business is shrinking.
Net margin of -2.3% and return on equity of -7.6% show the company is losing money on every dollar of sales and equity.
Debt to equity of 1.18 and a 19.7% rise in diluted share count leave shareholders carrying leverage and dilution at the same time.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where THRY's valuation models land
Price
$1.19
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$0.85
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Graham number
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores