2 models fit Hanover Insurance Group Inc and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver69
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionHanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)
Fair value (2 models)
$254
ACCE price target
$220
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $226 since 9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $238 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
6.3% below
+6.7% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
Analysts
25% buy
8 covering
P/E
11.4x
forward 12.1x
1-year return
+36.3%
Dividend yield
1.59%
Hanover Insurance Group Inc in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
The Hanover Insurance Group writes property and casualty cover through its Hanover Standard commercial lines unit, which specialises in small and mid-sized business packages, workers' compensation and specialty lines, alongside a personal lines book of homeowners, auto and umbrella policies sold through independent agents. The case for a closer look is the combination of a profitable underwriting franchise and a valuation that has not kept pace: a 21.9% return on equity against an 10.9x trailing and 11.1x forward earnings multiple, with revenue growing 4.3%. Margins are the key thing to test, with a 14.8% operating margin, and the analysis should focus on whether commercial pricing and loss ratios hold up through the next catastrophe-heavy quarters. Management's ability to keep growing premium while pricing discipline stays intact is the swing factor, and the stock scores 72/100 on our framework, which makes it a candidate for deeper work rather than a conclusion.