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TD
ACCE-researched

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Common Stock (TD) fair value

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified · NYSE · United States
$124.61-0.41%
Market cap $204.3BNext earnings 2026-12-03Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 39% above our fair value
Price
$124.61
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$89.66
Model range
$71.08 to $105
Fair value $89.66
Price $125
4 models fit Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze55
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionToronto Dominion Bank (The) Common Stock (TD)
Fair value (4 models)
$89.66
ACCE price target
$124
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $93.24 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $128 since 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $125 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
39.0% above
-28.0% to fair value
ACCE score
69
out of 100
Analysts
64% buy
14 covering
P/E
18.5x
forward 15.1x
1-year return
+54.0%
Dividend yield
3.47%

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Toronto Dominion operates a dual-mandate North American bank, with retail and commercial lending in Canada through TD Bank and a wholesale and investment banking platform in the US via TD Securities and Ameritrade. The Canadian retail franchise benefits from structural tailwinds: population growth of 2.4% annually (well above peer averages) and a mortgage market where five-year fixed rates reset regularly, allowing the bank to reprice assets as rates move. Net interest margin compression has been the near-term headwind, but forward PE of 14.7 against a 12.8% ROE suggests the market is pricing in stabilization as rate cuts plateau. The US wealth management business, anchored by Ameritrade's 12 million retail clients, sits on a large deposit base that has been repriced downward; as deposit costs normalize, this segment could drive material margin recovery. At current valuations, the stock trades at a modest discount to historical averages despite a cleaner liability structure than many peers and exposure to a demographic tailwind most large Canadian banks cannot replicate.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Massive negative free cash flow
    FCF of -$71.8B is deeply concerning for a mature bank. This suggests capital deployment or accounting treatment issues that warrant investigation.
  • moderate
    Valuation score well below peers
    ACCE Value score of 50/100 is the weakest component. Forward P/E of 14.7 may not fully compensate for balance sheet leverage (D/E 2.03).

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 11.5% year over year, well above the 4.4% five-year average, showing strong recent momentum.
  • Net margin of 26.6% and ROE of 12.8% demonstrate efficient operations and solid returns on shareholder capital.
  • Share buybacks reduced diluted share count by 2.3% last year while 64% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow was negative CAD 71.8B over the last 12 months, raising questions about cash generation quality.
  • Consensus fair value is CAD 91.86, implying 20.2% downside from the current CAD 115.10 share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Dec 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TD's valuation models land
Price
$124.61
Model fair value
$89.66
Model range
$71.08 to $105
Fair value $89.66
Price $125
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish64% buy · 14 covering analysts
● Strong buy 4● Buy 5● Hold 3● Sell 2● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.5%
1 month
+4.4%
3 months
+4.0%
6 months
+18.6%
YTD
+32.3%
1 year
+54.0%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$120
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$89.66$93.24$120
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$124$128$120
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$93.24$91.86$116
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$91.86$85.43$114
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$85.43$87.34$168
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$128first publication$121
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$87.34$88.87$168
2 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$88.87$79.02$168
30 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$79.02$86.90$168

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth76Value39Quality72Momentum90Total69
Valuation
Trailing P/E
18.5x
Forward P/E
15.1x
PEG
1.01
P/B
2.41x
EV / Revenue
7.9x
Book value/sh
C$53.85
Enterprise value
$107.8B
Profitability
ROE
12.8%
FCF yield
-25.04%
ROIC
2.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
5.19
Dividend yield
3.47%
Beta
0.87

Price

+53.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about TD

Answered from Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 33% of peers
low 12.1x18.5xhigh 24.1x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 9%13%high 14%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.9%3.5%high 3.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TD Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Common Stock$124.61$9039% above18.5x12.8%7269
C Citigroup Inc. Common Stock$122.51$1166% above12.1x9.3%6760
TD.TO Toronto-Dominion BankC$175.14C$12541% above18.7x12.8%7272
CBA.AX Commonwealth Bank of AustraliaA$157.17A$9468% above24.1x13.9%7248
SAN Banco Santander S.A. Sponsored ADR (Spain)$12.90$147% below12.5x13.1%7264
SAN.MC Banco Santander€11.48€116% above13.1x13.1%7271
8306.T Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group¥3373.00¥214557% above13.9x9.5%6177

Sector report card

Where TD ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    TD Bank U.S. Names Hardeep Walia to Lead U.S. Wealth Business
  • Business Wire•Oct 6, 2026
    Nearly 7 in 10 Americans Would Let AI Complete Certain Financial Tasks, TD Survey Finds
  • Business Wire•Oct 5, 2026
    Eyes on Growth: TD Survey Finds Small Businesses Confident About Growth Despite Economic Headwinds and Delayed Investments
10 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
29 filings of 40
October 2026
Oct 9
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-08
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 30
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Sep 28
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-28
View on SEC →
26 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR