3 models fit BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver62
Valued as a fund or holding company: Net asset value, Dividend discount, and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionBlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock (TCPC)
Fair value (3 models)
$8.85
ACCE price target
$3.70
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST; previously $7.44 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST.
Price used: $4.02 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Net asset value.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
54.6% below
+120.0% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
4 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 9.9x
1-year return
-30.4%
Dividend yield
20.69%
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. is a business development company that makes senior secured and mezzanine loans to middle-market U.S. companies, earning interest income that it largely passes through to shareholders as dividends. The structural appeal is the high gross and operating margins typical of a lender, with the company reporting an 82.8% operating margin, but the numbers that matter are weaker: revenue fell 22.2% and return on equity is -16.8%, so realized credit losses and mark-downs are eroding the spread income. The obvious near-term catalyst is credit performance, specifically whether non-accruals stop rising and net asset value stabilizes, which would show up first in the portfolio's quarterly marks. At a forward P/E of 9.9 the stock screens cheap against its own earnings power, but the trailing P/E is zero because earnings are negative, so the discount is only worth underwriting if you can get comfortable that the losses are cyclical and not a sign the book is deteriorating. The company's 44/100 score and absence from any index suggest the market has not yet been persuaded, which makes the name a candidate for a deeper look at the loan book rather than a conclusion in either direction.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue contracting sharply
Revenue is down 22.2% year over year and 6.0% quarter over quarter, while the five-year revenue CAGR is only +3.7%. The top line is shrinking faster than its long-run trend.
high
Leverage and negative ROE
Debt to equity sits at 1.73 and ROE is -16.8%, with net margin at -61.3%. Equity is being eroded while borrowing stays high, which limits room for error.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest is 6.1% of float. That is not extreme, but it signals some professional investors are betting against the shares.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months came to $155M, a large amount against a $4.02 share price.
Trailing revenue has grown 3.7% a year on average over five years, so the business was not in decline before this year.
The latest quarterly earnings beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.22 against 0.20 forecast, a 10.0% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 22.2% year over year, and net margin was negative at -61.3%, so the business is losing money on its sales.
The dividend yield of 18.4% looks unsustainable when revenue is shrinking this fast, which raises doubts about the payout.
Debt to equity stands at 1.73, and the diluted share count rose 6.7% last year, so each shareholder's slice is shrinking.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TCPC's valuation models land
Price
$4.02
Model fair value
$8.85
Model range
$7.13 to $11.33
Fair value $8.85
Price $4.02
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Net asset value
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
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Quality
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