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TCBX

Third Coast Bancshares Inc. Common Stock (TCBX) fair value

Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NYSE · United States
$39.80-0.50%
Market cap $666MNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 18% below our fair value
Price
$39.80
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$48.71
Model range
$45.94 to $53.92
Fair value $48.71
Price $39.80
3 models fit Third Coast Bancshares Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Bronze58
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionThird Coast Bancshares Inc. Common Stock (TCBX)
Fair value (3 models)
$48.71
ACCE price target
$45.10
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $47.90 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $39.80 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
18.3% below
+22.4% to fair value
ACCE score
76
out of 100
Analysts
57% buy
7 covering
P/E
10.2x
forward 10.2x
1-year return
+4.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Third Coast Bancshares Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Third Coast Bancshares is the holding company for Third Coast Bank SSB, a Houston-based regional lender that writes commercial real estate, middle-market commercial and industrial loans, and specialty deposit products aimed at closely held businesses in Texas. The franchise is built on relationship lending in a fast-growing metro rather than on branch count, which lets it grow loans without a matching build-out of cost. Reported revenue growth of 32.1% is the headline number, and with a 10.3x trailing P/E and a 12.7% ROE the stock is priced as an ordinary regional bank while the top line is compounding at a rate most of its peers cannot match. The open question is whether that revenue growth is durable loan growth or partly the product of rate and mix effects that will fade, so the case rests on reading the loan book and net interest margin closely. At a 689M market cap and no index membership, the name sits below the radar of most generalist bank coverage, which is the main reason to look at it now.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 32.1% year over year, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 34.4%.
  • The stock trades at 10.2x forward earnings, below the sector median of 11.9x.
  • Free cash flow of $48M over the last twelve months gives a 7.0% yield, and the diluted share count fell 4.4%.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on equity of 12.7% and return on invested capital of 8.1% are modest for a bank.
  • Analysts are not unanimous, with only 57% (4 of 7) rating the shares Buy or Strong Buy.
  • Only 3 of 4 valuation models in the consensus support the $47.90 fair value, which sits 14.9% above the $41.70 share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TCBX's valuation models land
Price
$39.80
Model fair value
$48.71
Model range
$45.94 to $53.92
Fair value $48.71
Price $39.80
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed57% buy · 7 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 2● Hold 3● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-4.1%
1 month
-7.3%
3 months
-6.9%
6 months
+6.1%
YTD
+4.7%
1 year
+4.5%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTFair value$48.40$47.90$41.50
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$41.50
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$45.10first publication$41.78
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$47.90$43.50$41.34
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.50$44.18$42.89
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.18$45.13$43.25
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$45.13$45.60$44.30
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$45.60$46.16$45.00
9 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$46.16$46.85$46.05
6 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$46.85$45.85$46.05

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth84Value75Quality90Momentum54Total76
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.2x
Forward P/E
10.2x
PEG
0.81
P/B
1.03x
EV / Revenue
3.4x
Book value/sh
$38.22
Enterprise value
$429M
Profitability
ROE
12.7%
FCF yield
7.24%
ROIC
8.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.26
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
0.65

Price

+3.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about TCBX

Answered from Third Coast Bancshares Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 8.2x10.2xhigh 15.4x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 6%13%high 13%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 5.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TCBX Third Coast Bancshares Inc. Common Stock$39.80$4918% below10.2x12.7%9076
BPAT.BA Banco PatagoniaARS 1705.00--10.1x5.9%7462
BBAR.BA BBVA Banco Frances SAARS 6830.00--11.0x8.1%7168
BMA.BA Banco Macro SA BARS 10280.00--15.4x7.1%7957
BOGOTA.CL Banco de BogotaCOP 38320.00--9.0x9.2%6149
PFDAVVNDA.CL Davivienda Group preferredCOP 29500.00--8.2x10.3%5382
ITAUCL.SN Banco Itau ChileCLP 22800.00--12.3x9.4%8171

Sector report card

Where TCBX ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 7, 2026
    Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. and Great Plains Bancshares, Inc. Announce Definitive Merger Agreement
  • PR Newswire•Sep 30, 2026
    Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Announces 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Schedule
  • PR Newswire•Sep 17, 2026
    Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock
10 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 13
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-06
View on SEC →
Oct 7
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-06
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 18
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-17
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR