Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NASDAQ · United States
$52.72-3.07%
Market cap $1.7BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 22% above our fair value
Price
$52.72
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$43.29
Model range
$28.37 to $59.90
Fair value $43.29
Price $52.72
4 models fit TriCo Bancshares Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver74
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTriCo Bancshares Common Stock (TCBK)
Fair value (4 models)
$43.29
ACCE price target
$55.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $42.17 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $52.72 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
21.8% above
-17.9% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
Analysts
17% buy
6 covering
P/E
12.2x
forward 12.0x
1-year return
+22.5%
Dividend yield
2.65%
TriCo Bancshares Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TriCo Bancshares is the holding company for TriCo Bank, a California regional lender that takes deposits and writes commercial, agricultural and residential mortgage loans across the northern and central part of the state. Its edge is a dense branch and relationship footprint in local markets where larger national banks have been shrinking their presence, which tends to produce sticky, low-cost deposits. Revenue is growing at 10.4%, and the stock trades at 12.4 times trailing earnings and 12.1 times forward earnings, a small step down that implies the market expects earnings to keep rising. Return on equity of 10.4% is respectable rather than exceptional for a bank, so the case rests on whether that profitability holds through the credit cycle and on the loan book's exposure to California real estate and agriculture. The mid-cap size and absence from major indices mean it can be under-followed, which is worth a closer look at the loan mix and deposit trends before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 10 points, from 79 to 69, over 90 days, while revenue grew 10.4% and earnings grew 26.2% year over year. The fall is driven by other components, not the headline growth.
moderate
Price well above model fair value
At $52.04 the stock trades 21.8% above the model fair value of $43.29, so the valuation models offer less margin of safety than the P/E of 12.5 might suggest.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 10.4% year over year and has averaged 11.0% a year over five years, a steady pace for a bank.
A 31.8% net margin and a 7.7% free cash flow yield suggest the business turns sales into cash efficiently at today's price.
Debt is only 0.06 times equity and the share count fell 1.8% last year, leaving a balance sheet with room to spare.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 10.4% and return on invested capital of 7.1% are modest returns on the capital the bank holds.
The stock trades 21.8% above the model fair value of $43.29, and all four valuation models sit below the price.
Only 17% of analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, and key risks on file flag California commercial real estate exposure.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TCBK's valuation models land
Price
$52.72
Model fair value
$43.29
Model range
$28.37 to $59.90
Fair value $43.29
Price $52.72
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
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