2 models fit Salzgitter AG and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionSalzgitter AG (SZG.DE)
Fair value (2 models)
€34.87
ACCE price target
€53.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €43.82 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
25.7% above
-20.4% to fair value
ACCE score
40
out of 100
P/E
41.7x
forward 5.4x
1-year return
+53.6%
Dividend yield
0.42%
Salzgitter AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Salzgitter makes flat and tubular steel, plus specialty products such as wheels, sheet piling and strip for automotive and construction customers, with the group run from Germany. The structural case rests on its position as one of Germany's few integrated steelmakers, which gives it a domestic supply base in a market where import competition and carbon costs have squeezed weaker peers. Revenue fell 4.0% and the operating margin is negative at -1.6%, so the near-term earnings story is one of cyclical trough and restructuring rather than growth. The valuation looks optically stretched on trailing earnings at 42.6x but drops to 5.5x forward, which means the market is pricing a recovery in profit that the current numbers do not yet show. With ROE at 1.4% and a 36.7% gross margin against a negative operating margin, the gap between gross profit and the bottom line is the first thing to test before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse year on year
Earnings fell 90.7% YoY while revenue dropped 4.0%, and the operating margin is now -1.6%. Trailing P/E of 45.0 reflects depressed earnings, not a cheap stock.
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is $-653.9M. Even with a Debt/Equity of 0.50, the company is burning cash, which limits its capacity to fund investment or dividends from operations.
moderate
Shares trade above model fair value
The price of €43.82 trades 25.7% above the model fair value of €34.87, so the stock already prices in a recovery that current earnings do not show.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 68.70 sits well above the share price, with the target 25.7% above the current price.
Forward earnings multiple of 4.2x is far below the sector median of 17.0x, suggesting the stock is cheap against peers on expected earnings.
Earnings beat expectations last quarter, with earnings per share of 1.08 against 1.02 expected, a surprise of 5.9%.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at EUR -654M, so the business is consuming cash rather than generating it.
Return on invested capital of -0.9% and return on equity of 1.4% show the company earns almost nothing on the money invested in it.
Consensus model fair value of €34.87 is 25.7% below the current price of €43.82, so the shares look expensive on intrinsic value.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SZG.DE's valuation models land
Price
€43.82
Model fair value
€34.87
Model range
€16.03 to €53.71
Fair value €34.87
Price €43.82
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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