2 models fit Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Bronze47
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSupernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock (SUPN)
Fair value (2 models)
$47.44
ACCE price target
$42.20
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $43.90 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $40.70 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
14.2% below
+16.6% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
4 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 20.2x
1-year return
-21.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Supernus Pharmaceuticals makes central nervous system drugs, including Qelbree for ADHD, Xadago for Parkinson's disease, and Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR for epilepsy, and it has been moving its revenue mix toward branded products. Qelbree is the main engine, and the 32.4% revenue growth in the data shows the launch and newer products are compounding faster than the legacy franchise. The gross margin of 72.9% reflects the branded mix, but operating margin is still slightly negative at -2.5% and ROE is -10.5%, so the operating leverage has not yet arrived. The investment case rests on whether that gap closes as Qelbree scales, which the forward P/E of 20.2 implies the market expects. At a $2.2B market cap and a 49/100 score, the name is a candidate for a deeper look at the operating trajectory and the Trokendi and Oxtellar generic erosion, not a conclusion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Score down sharply
ACCE score fell 13 points in 90 days, from 60 to 47. Margin component is weak at 17/100 and quality at 47/100, with net margin at -13.2% and ROE at -10.5%.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Insiders disclosed $10.03M of sales across the last 10 filings and no purchases. Insider ownership is only 4.3%.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 10.5% of shares, which signals meaningful bearish positioning alongside the weak profitability profile.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 32.4% year over year, well above the company's 6.7% average annual growth over the last five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $46M, and debt is minimal at 0.04 times equity.
Why it could disappoint
The company still lost money, with a net margin of -13.2% and a return on equity of -10.5%.
The shares trade 14.2% below the model fair value of $47.44, and 3.6% below the ACCE price target of $42.20, so the price already reflects some caution.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 30.0%, yet the company is not yet profitable on a net margin basis.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SUPN's valuation models land
Price
$40.70
Model fair value
$47.44
Model range
$34.85 to $62.13
Fair value $47.44
Price $40.70
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores