Stabilus SE (STM.DE) fair value

ACCE thesis

Stabilus makes gas springs, electromechanical actuators and dampers that power tailgates, seats and hoods in cars, and lift and motion systems for office furniture and medical equipment. Its edge is scale in a niche where automakers qualify suppliers for the life of a platform, which locks in volumes for years once a part is designed in. Revenue is shrinking at 5.2% and operating margin sits at 7.2%, so the business is currently under pressure from weaker auto production. The stock trades at 6.7 times trailing earnings and 5.9 times forward, a multiple that prices in a lot of that weakness, so the question for a deeper look is whether volumes stabilise and margins hold near current levels. At a 383 million euro market cap with no index membership, it is a small, under-followed name where the thesis rests on the cycle turning rather than on any near-term catalyst.