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STGW

Stagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock (STGW) fair value

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies · NASDAQ · United States
$8.98-0.11%
Market cap $2.2BNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 71% above our fair value
Price
$8.98
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$5.25
Model range
$2.77 to $8.78
Fair value $5.25
Price $8.98
3 models fit Stagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver60
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionStagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock (STGW)
Fair value (3 models)
$5.25
ACCE price target
$10.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST; previously $5.34 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
Price used: $8.98 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
71.0% above
-41.5% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
88% buy
8 covering
P/E
179.6x
forward 7.1x
1-year return
+82.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Stagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Stagwell runs a network of marketing and communications agencies, including its Stagwell Marketing Cloud, performance media and digital production businesses, and a set of specialist shops that sell into brand and political advertising. The structural appeal is the fast-growing performance and data-driven media slice, which has pushed revenue up 11.2% even as traditional agency fees face pressure from in-housing and client budget cuts. The near-term catalyst is operating leverage: with operating margin at just 2.6% against a 35.8% gross margin, any stabilisation in overhead would flow disproportionately to earnings. At a forward P/E of 6.0 against a trailing P/E of 182.6, the market is pricing in a sharp swing in reported profitability rather than the current depressed figures. The 2.4% ROE and thin operating margin mean the thesis rests on that margin recovery actually arriving, which is the first thing to verify in the filings.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Insider selling without buys
    Insiders sold $13.07M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought $0.00M, while insiders still hold 59.7% of the company.
  • high
    Thin margins, heavy leverage
    Operating margin is 2.6% and net margin 0.5%, against a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.12. Little earnings cushion sits behind that debt load.
  • moderate
    Sequential revenue decline
    Revenue fell 12.8% quarter over quarter, even though year-over-year growth is 11.2%. The most recent quarter is weaker than the trend.
  • moderate
    Earnings look inflated by a low base
    A P/E of 179.6 against a forward P/E of 7.1 suggests trailing earnings are depressed or one-off, so the 65.1% earnings growth figure needs caution.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-18 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 11.2% year over year in the latest quarter, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 26.8%.
  • Seven of eight analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits 19.3% above the current share price.
  • The stock trades at 7.1 times forward earnings against a sector median of 16.8 times, and its latest earnings beat expectations by 53.8%.
Why it could disappoint
  • Net margin is only 0.5% and return on invested capital is 1.0%, so growth is not turning into meaningful profit.
  • Diluted share count rose 128.5% over the last fiscal year, which heavily dilutes existing shareholders' stakes.
  • The stock trades 71.0% above the model fair value of $5.25, and the trailing P/E of 179.6 times looks stretched.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where STGW's valuation models land
Price
$8.98
Model fair value
$5.25
Model range
$2.77 to $8.78
Fair value $5.25
Price $8.98
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish88% buy · 8 covering analysts
● Strong buy 6● Buy 1● Hold 1● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.0%
1 month
+5.9%
3 months
+21.0%
6 months
+31.1%
YTD
+83.6%
1 year
+82.9%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CESTFair value$5.25$5.34$8.98
18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$8.98
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$5.34$7.45$8.86
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$10.00first publication$8.65
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.45$7.33$8.65
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.33$7.41$8.36
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.41$7.54$8.32
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.54$9.11$8.12
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$9.11$9.35$8.60
7 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$9.35$9.16$8.77

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth76Value77Quality28Momentum97Total70
Valuation
Trailing P/E
179.6x
Forward P/E
7.1x
PEG
2.74
P/B
3.10x
EV / Revenue
1.2x
Book value/sh
$2.74
Enterprise value
$3.7B
Profitability
ROE
2.4%
FCF yield
11.34%
ROIC
1.0%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
2.12
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.30

Price

+75.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about STGW

Answered from Stagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0x179.6xhigh 179.6x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low -1%2%high 70%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 5.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
STGW Stagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock$8.98$571% above179.6x2.4%2870
DV DoubleVerify Holdings Inc. Common Stock$13.55$1210% above38.7x5.4%7167
SAX.DE Ströer SE & Co. KGaA€37.60€418% below17.1x33.6%6159
ZD Ziff Davis Inc. Common Stock$57.89$7017% below--1.5%6270
HAVAS.AS Havas N.V.€16.90€2942% below8.7x12.2%6867
FOUR.L 4imprint Group plc£43.56£3816% above16.3x70.1%7864
MGNI Magnite Inc. Common Stock$22.89$1554% above20.8x19.6%8776

Sector report card

Where STGW ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
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4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 5
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-02
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR