2 models fit FreightCar America Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionFreightCar America Inc. Common Stock (RAIL)
Fair value (2 models)
$8.60
ACCE price target
$4.80
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $6.88 since 7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 21 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $6.30 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $4.23 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
50.8% below
+103.3% to fair value
ACCE score
25
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
2 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 8.0x
1-year return
-55.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
FreightCar America Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
FreightCar America builds and rebuilds railcars, mainly covered hoppers, gondolas and tank cars for North American freight operators, and it also runs a repair and refurbishment business. The thesis rests on a recovery in railcar demand, since the cyclical replacement cycle for aging fleets is the only real lever here, and the company is not a structural compounder. Revenue fell 4.6% and operating margin is negative at -3.8%, with a gross margin of just 12.5%, so the business is not currently earning its way out of the slump. The forward P/E of 8.8 against a trailing P/E of zero says the market is pricing in a return to profit that has not yet shown up in reported earnings, so the case depends on order book conversion and margin repair rather than on anything already visible. With a 194M market cap, a score of 25/100 and no index membership, this is a small, low-margin cyclical that merits a look only if you have a view on railcar orders bottoming and can underwrite the balance sheet through the trough.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Thin equity, heavy leverage
Debt/Equity of -1.42 means negative book equity, and ROE is -8.8%. Losses are eroding what little equity remains, leaving little cushion against further downturns.
high
Earnings and revenue falling
Revenue is down 4.6% year over year, earnings down 24.2%, and QoQ revenue fell 48.8%. Operating margin is -3.8%, so the business is shrinking and losing money at the operating line.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 31 to 25 over 90 days, with Quality at 13 and Momentum at 17. The deterioration is broad rather than confined to one factor.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts covering the stock are unanimous, with both rating it Buy or Strong Buy and a mean price target far above the current price.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.8x against a sector median of 24.0x, and generates free cash flow of $31M over the last twelve months.
Why it could disappoint
The company reported negative net margin and negative return on equity, and its latest earnings per share missed expectations by a wide margin.
Revenue fell 4.6% year over year, and the diluted share count grew 10.0% last fiscal year, diluting existing holders.
Only 2 of 3 valuation models sit in the consensus, and the price implies cash flow shrinking 2.5% a year over five years.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where RAIL's valuation models land
Price
$4.23
Model fair value
$8.60
Model range
$8.13 to $9.53
Fair value $8.60
Price $4.23
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores