OWL
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Blue Owl manages $102 billion across credit and GP capital solutions, targeting the massive shift of institutional capital from public to private markets. The firm sits at the intersection of two secular growth trends: direct lending to mid-market companies starved of traditional bank credit, and GP capital solutions where fund managers need liquidity without selling portfolio companies. Fee-related earnings jumped 34% year-over-year in Q3 as assets under management expanded to record levels, with $15 billion of new commitments in the quarter alone. Trading at 9.8x forward earnings despite 25%+ fee-related earnings growth, the stock trades like a legacy asset manager when it's actually a picks-and-shovels play on private market expansion. Management expects to deploy $25 billion of dry powder over the next 12 months, setting up significant earnings acceleration as performance fees kick in.
- highExtreme short interestShort interest at 19.2% signals significant bearish conviction from sophisticated investors against OWL's current valuation.
- highACCE score collapseScore dropped 12 points in 90 days (57→45), with Growth sub-score at just 28/100, flagging deteriorating fundamentals momentum.
- highEarnings declining sharplyEarnings YoY down 14.0% while revenue grew only 7.1%, indicating rising costs or margin erosion compressing profitability.
- moderateValuation/earnings disconnectTrailing P/E of 97.3x versus net margin of only 2.7% suggests earnings quality is poor relative to the premium price paid.
- moderateElevated leverageDebt/Equity ratio of 1.90 in an asset management firm raises refinancing and balance sheet risk if credit conditions tighten.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial Inc. Common Stock | $15.5B | 22.3 | 7.1% | 0.83 | 2.8% | - | Compare |
| EQH | Equitable Holdings Inc. Common Stock | $14.7B | - | -25.1% | -88.68 | 2.1% | - | Compare |
| IGM.TO | IGM Financial Inc. | $14.7B | 18.1 | 13.4% | 0.81 | 2.7% | - | Compare |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock | $14.3B | 41.8 | 7.8% | 1.86 | 3.5% | - | Compare |
| BEN | Franklin Resources Inc. Common Stock | $16.8B | 22.5 | 7.9% | 1.10 | 4.0% | - | Compare |
| ARCC | Ares Capital Corporation Common Stock | $13.9B | 14.5 | 6.9% | 1.05 | 9.8% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where OWL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- PR Newswire•Sep 17, 2026Funds Managed by Blue Owl Capital Complete $91.7M Sale-Leaseback Transaction with Trustmark
- PR Newswire•Aug 31, 2026Blue Owl to Present at Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference
- PR Newswire•Aug 28, 2026BLUE OWL MANAGED FUNDS LEAD $2.4 BILLION AI FACTORY FINANCING FOR IREN
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Recent performance
SEC filings
Recent ACCE blog coverage
- $OWL ACCE Score Drops 10 Points to 44 - What ChangedBlue Owl Capital's ACCE composite score fell from 54 to 44. Here's what the subscore breakdown reveals about growth, momentum, and earnings quality.2026-08-06
- $OWL ACCE Score Drops 14 Points to 56 on Composite WeaknessBlue Owl Capital's ACCE composite score fell from 70 to 56, a 14-point decline suggesting deterioration across multiple fundamental factors.2026-05-12