2 models fit Olin Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze57
Valued as a cyclical company: EV/EBITDA comparison and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionOlin Corporation Common Stock (OLN)
Fair value (2 models)
$44.32
ACCE price target
$15.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $46.36 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $15.66 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
64.7% below
+183.0% to fair value
ACCE score
26
out of 100
Analysts
13% buy
16 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 25.8x
1-year return
-34.7%
Dividend yield
5.36%
Olin Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Olin makes chlor-alkali products (chlorine and caustic soda), epoxy resins, and Winchester ammunition, and its chemicals business is the core of the company. The structural case rests on chlor-alkali being a cost-advantaged, capacity-constrained commodity where the producers with the lowest-cost power and feedstock tend to hold up through the cycle. The data here does not yet show that advantage in the numbers: revenue is shrinking 0.9%, the gross margin sits at 6.9% and the operating margin at 4.0%, and ROE is -10.6%. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.8 against a trailing P/E of zero, which says the market is pricing a recovery in earnings that has not yet appeared in reported results. The score of 26/100 and absence from any index reflect that gap, so the case for a closer look depends on whether margins can turn before the forward multiple has to compress.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Earnings collapse and losses
Earnings are down 97.5% year over year, net margin is -2.9%, and ROE is -10.6%. The business is currently losing money on an equity basis.
high
Leverage stretched against equity
Debt to equity is 1.71, so borrowings exceed shareholder equity. Combined with negative earnings, this limits room for error if conditions weaken further.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 14.4% of float, a sizeable bet against the shares that could amplify volatility in either direction.
moderate
Revenue shrinking, score falling
Revenue is down 0.9% year over year and the ACCE score fell from 34 to 26 over 90 days, with quality scored 22 and momentum 17.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $248M, giving the stock a 13.9% free cash flow yield at today's price.
Revenue has grown 3.3% a year on average over five years, and the company has cut its diluted share count by 4.1% in the last fiscal year.
The 5.1% dividend yield is paid by a company whose consensus model fair value sits well above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 0.9% year over year and the company lost money, with a net margin of -2.9% in the latest filing.
Return on equity of -10.6% and return on invested capital of -0.7% show the business is not currently earning back its capital.
Debt to equity of 1.71 leaves little room for error, and only 2 of 16 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where OLN's valuation models land
Price
$15.66
Model fair value
$44.32
Model range
$31.18 to $50.89
Fair value $44.32
Price $15.66
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores