2 models fit Organon & Co. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver64
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionOrganon & Co. Common Stock (OGN)
Fair value (2 models)
$7.02
ACCE price target
$13.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $6.52 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $13.75 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
95.8% above
-48.9% to fair value
ACCE score
64
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
5 covering
P/E
17.6x
forward 5.1x
1-year return
+51.9%
Dividend yield
0.58%
Organon & Co. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Organon sells a mix of established branded pharmaceuticals, including women's health products such as Nexplanon and Follistim, along with a sizable biosimilars and generics business it inherited from Merck. The case rests on cash generation rather than top-line growth: a 53.4% gross margin, a 20.7% operating margin and a 24.0% ROE, against a 3.6B USD market cap, suggest a business earning well above its size. Revenue is shrinking (-2.3%), and that is the central question for any deeper look, since the forward P/E of 5.1 compared with a trailing 17.6 implies the market expects earnings to fall or the trailing figures to be flattered by one-offs. The score of 64/100 and the absence of any index membership point to a name that screens as cheap but is not yet a consensus holding. Whether the margin base can hold while the top line keeps declining is the first thing to test.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings in steep decline
Earnings are down 28.3% YoY and revenue fell 2.3%, while the stock trades 95.8% above the model fair value of $7.02. The valuation rests on forward earnings that look fragile.
high
Leverage and thin net margin
Debt/Equity is 11.70 and the net margin is only 3.4% against a 20.7% operating margin, so interest and other costs absorb most of the operating profit.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 8.2% of float, and insiders have sold $0.55M against $0.35M of buys over the last ten disclosed trades.
moderate
ACCE score down sharply
The ACCE score fell 16 points over 90 days, from 80 to 64, with quality at 60 the weakest pillar against a 97 on momentum.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $538M, and the stock offers a 14.9% free cash flow yield at today's price.
The forward P/E of 5.1x sits far below the sector median of 24.2x, so the stock is priced cheaply against healthcare peers.
At the current price, the reverse DCF implies only 5.9% yearly cash flow growth over five years, a modest bar to clear.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 2.3% year over year, and the five-year average annual change is still negative at -1.0%.
Debt to equity of 11.70 leaves almost no equity cushion, so a small hit to earnings could strain the balance sheet.
Analysts' mean price target of $11.25 sits 18.2% below the share price, and none of the five analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where OGN's valuation models land
Price
$13.75
Model fair value
$7.02
Model range
$6.80 to $7.48
Fair value $7.02
Price $13.75
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores