3 models fit Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionNova Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NVMI)
Fair value (3 models)
$169
ACCE price target
$365
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $237 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $311 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
84.4% above
-45.8% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
8 covering
P/E
38.9x
forward 22.8x
1-year return
-8.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) makes process control metrology and optical inspection systems that semiconductor fabs use to measure film thickness, critical dimensions and overlay on wafers during manufacturing, a niche where precision and repeatability are hard to replicate. The company reports 15.9% revenue growth, a 57.1% gross margin and a 29.9% operating margin, which together suggest pricing power in a tool category that tends to be cyclical. Its 42.8x trailing P/E compresses to 25.1x on forward estimates, implying the market expects earnings to rise sharply, so the case rests on whether that step-up in profitability shows up as wafer fab equipment spending recovers. With an ROE of 21.1% and a $10.9B market cap, the name is worth a deeper look for fundamentals, though its composite score of 53/100 and lack of index membership mean the quality case is not yet broadly recognized.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings growth deceleration
Earnings YoY +2.9% vs revenue +15.9% signals margin compression or one-time items. Operating margin at 29.9% is strong but earnings growth lags revenue sharply.
high
Valuation multiple compression
P/E 44.1 and EV/EBITDA 37.3 remain elevated. ACCE score fell 7 points in 90 days (62 to 55); valuation component (V:30) is weak relative to quality (Q:87).
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Last 10 disclosed transactions: $5.28M in sales, $0.00M in buys. No offsetting insider purchases to signal confidence at current price.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Nova has sustained 15.9% revenue growth while maintaining a 28.8% net margin, demonstrating pricing power and operational leverage.
A 21.1% return on equity and 5-year revenue growth of 15.6% per year show Nova compounds capital efficiently over time.
Why it could disappoint
Forward P/E of 25.8x sits below the sector median of 29.3x, yet the reverse DCF implies only 9.2% perpetual cash flow growth.
Free cash flow yield of just 1.0% on $113M annual generation offers minimal return cushion if growth disappoints.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where NVMI's valuation models land
Price
$311.35
Model fair value
$169
Model range
$107 to $293
Fair value $169
Price $311
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores